http://bluemanhoop.com/2013/05/16/live-blog-do-or-die-time-for-warriors-in-game-6-against-spurs/
Warriors Spurs Game 6 Live Blog
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Stephen Curry: How Can He Get Back On Track?
Stephen Curry’s hot hand may be limited to the court, but over the last month he has set the basketball world on fire. After suffering through the Curry experience in Game 1, the Spurs began experimenting new defensive strategies to be used on Curry. Amid the cries of “top five point guard!” and “best shooter ever!” Gregg Popovich was focused on slowing the newly anointed star.
Though likely helped by an ankle injury, the Spurs have greatly limited Curry since Game 2. In three games since the Game 2 victory in San Antonio, Stephen Curry has a true shooting percentage of only 47.9 percent, far below of 58.9 percent true shooting during the regular season and 57.1 percent for the playoffs. These struggles have not simply been a matter of scoring efficiency. Curry’s assist percentage (percent of teammates field goals assisted while on court) has dropped from his regular season 31.1 percent to 24.1 percent, and his usage rate has dropped from 26.4 percent to 22.6 percent. Along with dramatically limiting his efficiency, the Spurs have pressured Curry out of his typical rate of creation.
In Game 1 Tony Parker was Stephen Curry’s primary defender. Since then, Curry has primarily faced Danny Green, with intermittent spurts versus Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard. Tony Parker is a match-up liability versus the Warriors’ large wings, but the Spurs are clearly willing to surrender this in exchange for the ability to keep Green consistently matched up with Curry.
In his second year in San Antonio, Danny Green has developed into a very good perimeter defender. Warriors fans may recognize his ability to use his length to his advantage after recently admiring Klay Thompson’s defense. Green also has the strength, quickness, defensive instincts, and understanding of help-schemes to be a very good defender both on and off the ball.
Green’s willingness to pick up James Harden so far from the basket does not suggest he would ever give Curry the space to take an uncontested jump shot, as Harden is a far greater threat to attack the rim than Curry.
Green will not willingly surrender an inch of space on the perimeter, and in the pick and roll, the Spurs big men have been more committed to hedging and trapping Curry since Game 2.
Green, assisted by Curry’s shift to an off ball role, has done very well in limiting Curry’s space and denying any shooting opportunities. Over the course of the series, Curry has shifted towards an off-ball role. This off-ball role in Game 4 may have been induced by an ankle injury at the end of Game 3, but Curry’s shift began before Game 4, and continued through Game 5, when Curry appeared less hampered by ankle troubles. This shift to an off-ball role may be due to a belief that Curry puts more pressure on the defense running through off-ball screens, or that Curry needs the structured spacing of these plays to find scoring opportunities, but regardless of the Warriors’ motivation, Danny Green, along with the entire Spurs defense, has been excellent in preventing Curry from performing well offensively in this role.
To get Curry “going” again, the Warriors can wait for some miracle shooting, or proactively create beneficial offensive opportunities. They have attempted to free Curry for jump shots through off-ball action, but the disciplined Spurs have allowed very little space to Curry, often hedging or not-so-accidentally bumping Curry as he runs through off-ball screens. Athletic defenders like Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are able to chase Curry through these patterns without losing any significant ground.
Throughout the seasons, Curry’s primary method of on-ball attack was the pick and roll. 32.2 percent of Curry’s shot attempts, drawn fouls, or turnovers were generated through the pick and roll, far more than any other category tracked by mysynergysports.com. The Warriors recognize Curry’s proficiency in the pick and roll, and have developed a complex offense around the pick and roll.
Curry’s pick and roll are generally initiated from to locations, the top of key above the three-point line, or slightly above the break. Against top of the key pick and rolls, the Spurs big men generally stay in the paint, leaving Curry open for mid-range jump shots. Possibly because the athleticism of Green and Leonard makes these shots more difficult, Curry has been less aggressive off top of the key pick and rolls. He made his way into the paint off several at the beginning of Game 5, but went away from this action as the game progressed.
With the Warriors seemingly committed to using Curry off-ball, especially when Jarrett Jack is playing, many of Curry’s recent pick and rolls have been initiated towards the wing. Curry generally finishes off-ball plays in the corner or near the break, and drifts towards the wing. As the primary ball-handler, Curry will often dribble to this spot to set up the pick and roll.
Throughout the season, the Warriors ran these “Hawk Angle” pick and rolls. This action is generally preceded by a cutter running through the lane.
Against San Antonio, the Warriors have been reluctant to send this cutter when running hawk-angle pick and rolls.
In this play, Klay Thompson sets the screen for Curry, and rolls towards the right corner. The Warriors spacing on this play allows Boris Diaw to defend and box out both Landry and Lee, leaving Tim Duncan free to cover any penetration, meaning Kawhi Leonard can hedge aggressively deny the jump shot before recovering to Thompson.
The goal of this pick and roll may just be to draw a Parker switch onto Thompson, but the Warriors have run the hawk-angle pick and roll without sending the cutter regardless of the screener during this series. Even if Klay Thompson were on the opposite wing and David Lee was setting the screen, the Spurs’ help defenders would be able to free Duncan by having the man in the corner step down to fill Duncan’s rotation, only punishable by an extremely difficult kick pass by Curry to the opposite corner only LeBron James has mastered.
On this iteration of the hawk angle pick and roll, Klay Thompson runs through the lane as Harrison Barnes comes to set the screen. This forces the defense to account for Thompson running through the lane and coming off a screen on the opposite side, forcing Howard and Gasol to commit to help defense longer than expected, giving Curry more room to operate both in the middle of the court and on the right side.
Curry’s ankle injury may render any hope for Curry’s re-emergence as an offensive star a failure, but putting Curry in position to succeed is necessary if the Warriors hope to come back in the series. Off-ball actions often devolve into simple isolations on the catch, and against the Spurs have rarely produced open looks. Operating out of the pick and roll allows Curry to create or find his own space, and affects San Antonio’s defense much more than spot-ups and off-ball screens typically do. Stephen Curry has become an elite offensive NBA player, and as any Knicks (or general NBA) viewer will confirm, putting an offensive talent in position to succeed involves more than simply getting them the ball.
Are the Warriors Better off With Stephen Curry in an off-ball roll?
(Written for Blue Man Hoop)
Early in Stephen Curry’s career, there was uncertainty as to whether he should play shooting guard or point guard. Some thought Curry lacked the ball handling and court awareness to run the point. Curry has put these concerns to rest, but there is still some public doubt as to which role maximizes Curry’s talents and the Warriors’ efficiency.
However, the Warriors still often use Curry in an off ball roll. Throughout the games, the Warriors run series of screens designed to free Curry for a shot while another player, typically Jarrett Jack, runs the offense. These plays typically come in the form of a “floppy” set, in which Curry takes a series of staggered screens, generally looking for a corner three point attempt, while allowing structured reads and general improvisation through the play, or more simple pin-downs, which can result in a spot up look, but often lead into a pick and roll.
Along with their more basic sets, the Warriors have developed unique play designs, including the “Figure 8” set:
and the “Elevator Play”:
Curry is one of the league’s most effective off-ball shooters. According to mysynergysports.com, Curry scores 1.35 points per play in spot-up situations, 5th in the league, and 1.07 points per play off screens, 20th in the league.
The Warriors use Curry off-ball throughout games, but much of his off ball play comes in the fourth quarter, when Jarrett Jack often runs the offense, with Curry spacing the floor.
Even off-ball, Curry demands the constant attention of the defense. Curry’s defender often needs to chase him through screens and around the court, and the rest of the defense must hedge, trap, and deny screens to give Curry’s defender time to recover. This often draws defensive help from the ball handler, allowing Jarrett Jack, Klay Thompson, and the other Warriors to attack with decreased defensive pressure.
However, the defensive attention drawn by Curry off ball does far less to benefit the Warriors than Curry’s on ball creation. Curry scores effectively on-ball. He is the league’s 27th best pick and roll ball handler and 32nd best isolation scorer in terms of points per play, and had an impressive assist percentage of 29.8 percent during the regular season.
Curry is able to create scoring opportunities for both himself and for teammates, and his teammates are much more efficient at converting the looks Curry generates for them than they are at attacking when Curry is playing an off-ball roll. With David Lee no longer available to take advantage of defensive attention on Curry off-ball, Curry’s creation becomes even more necessary to the Warriors’ offense.
Warriors Secure Split, Even Series at 2-2
The Warriors overcame poor shooting and an eight-point halftime deficit to even the series at two games apiece. The Warriors held the Spurs to 35.5 percent shooting, only slightly worse than their 38.0 percent performance, and were especially effective defensively to end the game. After injuring his ankle at the end of Game 3, Stephen Curry appeared slowed, and spent the majority of the game off the ball, often forgotten as the Warriors struggled offensively.
Why the Warriors Won:
In classic Warriors fashion, the Warriors controlled the boards and dominated defensively. Well, maybe it was not the typical Golden State victory, and maybe the Warriors’ defensive success was as much a result of poor shooting by San Antonio as it was due to the Warriors’ actions, but the Warriors grabbed several key offensive rebounds, made a few vital stops, and received just enough assistance from San Antonio to eek out a victory.
Key Stretch:
With 4:18 left in the fourth quarter, Kawhi Leonard pulled down an easy offensive and scored on an uncontested layup, putting the Spurs up 80 to 72. Over the next three possessions, Jarrett Jack made three straight midrange jumpers, while the Spurs scored only once, decreasing the lead to four. More importantly, the Jack had returned some semblance of offensive production to the Warriors’ offense while the Spurs’ struggles continued.
MVP:
Today’s award goes to Jarrett Jack, almost by default. Jack scored 24 points on 9-of-16 shooting, and though they eventually won, Jack led the Warriors through many offensive possessions that were nothing more than offensive. Jack did not play well defensively, though he was not abused to the same degree as prior games, but someone has to take credit for the Warriors’ late game comeback. Jack keyed the Warriors offense down the stretch, avoided any crippling turnovers, and was efficient enough for the Warriors to win.
Notable Performances:
Stephen Curry, despite appearing immobile for many stretches, scored 22 points on 7-of-15 shooting. Curry was a team high plus-23 in his 39 minutes, but was not able to be the offensive focus on whom the Warriors have come to rely. Harrison Barnes attempted a career-high 26 field goals, but only made nine. Barnes repeatedly attacked out of the mid-post and off wing isolations, often against the smaller Tony Parker and Gary Neal.
On a night when nearly every player struggled offensively, Manu Ginobli may have been the most dynamic. Ginobli made 5-of-10 attempts from behind the arc, and converted 8-of-18 shots to score 21 points. Ginobli missed several key attempts towards the end of the game, and though he created much of the Spurs’ offense, he often damaged it as well.
How Has Jarrett Jack’s Playoff Performance Affected His Free-Agent Value?
(Written for Blue Man Hoop)
On May 2nd, Marcus Thompson reported that Jarrett Jack did not intend to sign an extension with the Warriors, and would enter free agency. In the article, Thompson wrote, “He is expected to be a fairly well sought after this offseason, especially with the postseason he’s having, as multiple teams are looking for a point guard.”
Jack may have impressed in his first few postseason games, but after recent difficulties, he has emerged as the scapegoat for most of the Warriors’ struggles. Statistically, Jack is only slightly worse than he was during the regular season, but several blown key decisions, typical egregious shot-selection without expected results, and defensive lapses have turned many Warriors’ fans against the sixth man.
During the playoffs, Jack has recorded a Player Efficiency Rating of 15.9, the exact same as his regular season P.E.R. Jack has scored 16.2 points per 36 minutes, 0.5 above his season production, and has actually increased his efficiency in doing so. Jack shot a 54.2 percent true shooting percentage during the regular season, which has improved to 57.8 percent through nine playoff games.
Jack primarily functions as a scoring guard, and while he has maintained his scoring ability, his contribution in other areas have dramatically decreased. Jack’s assist percentage has decreased from 29.9 percent to 22.8, and his turnover percentage has increased from 14.3.0 to 21.0.
The increased turnover rates and decreased assist rates are especially noticeable given Stephen Curry’s outstanding playoffs. Jack is blamed for taking potential shots from Curry, Thompson, and the other Warriors, and often takes the fall for their struggles while appearing irrelevant to their successes.
So, how has Jarret Jack’s playoff performance affected his free agent value?
First off, I do not expect that general manager’s typically put a ton of stock into playoff performance over a limited number of games. The nine games Jack has played in the playoffs represent 10.2 percent of Jack’s total games played this season. While this is not an entirely insignificant portion, there is plenty of data available that should influence a GM’s decision more than these playoffs. We often ridicule GM’s for judging a college player based on his performance in a few tournament games, and a judgment of Jack based solely on his playoff performance would be worthy of equal ridicule.
However, Jack’s play does reveal several of the major flaws in Jack’s game. He is a scoring guard whose shot-selection would not generally lead to efficient scoring, struggles defensively, and whose poor court vision is often detrimental to his team. He repeatedly makes bad decisions, highlighted by a hilariously awful turnover at the end of Game 3 versus San Antonio, and does not appear conscious of his struggles.
Jack’s ability to lead an effective offense has been brought into question by his struggles without Curry on the court, damaging his value to teams, such as the Utah Jazz, searching for a lead guard. If Jack’s 16 game disaster spanning March was not enough to make teams aware of this, the playoffs exemplify why Jack’s current role may already be beyond his ability.
The Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Bobcats, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, New Orleans Hornets, Orlando Magic,Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, and Utah Jazz will all have sufficient cap space to offer Jack a contract paying more than his current 5 million dollar salary.
In free agency, Jack will likely be looking for a significant increase in both salary and role. He may be willing to remain a backup point guard, perhaps still with the Warriors, but it is unlikely that he would do so without a pay raise and long-term contract.
Of the teams listed, four, Cleveland, Houston, Phoenix, and Portland, have point guards already under contract next season who would likely not surrender the starting role to Jack. Though Jameer Nelson may not be a better player than Jack, it is highly unlikely that the rebuilding Orlando would want to add Jack’s contract, as they, along with Charlotte, have no real motive to attempt to improve next season. Several of the teams listed have free-agent point guards they could likely re-sign. Atlanta will negotiate to keep Jeff Teague, Brandon Jennings has hinted at signing the qualifying offer with Milwaukee, and Jose Calderon may re-sign with Detroit, who could easily switch Brandon Knight back to point guard. Sacramento may or may not be able to retain Tyreke Evans, who is generally used as a small forward or shooting guard, already has Isaiah Thomas, and has no need for another shoot first guard. New Orleans is likely comfortable with Greivis Vasquez as a starter, though he is possibly worse than Jack defensively, and would likely rather keep their options open than pay Jack to continue their mediocrity.
Though the NBA landscape can obviously change very quickly, these conditions present only one destination for Jarrett Jack that would likely offer him the starting job; Utah. The Jazz finished the regular season 43-39, and contended for a playoff spot until the final week of the season despite playing with a point guard rotation of an often-injured Mo Williams, Jamaal Tinsley, Earl Watson, and Alec Burks. The cap space through which Jarrett Jack would potentially be signed will be created by the possible departure of their leading big men, Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. Utah may feel that the presence of a decent point guard will recreate the offensive production of Jefferson or Millsap, and that, with Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter waiting to replace the incumbent starters, the team will again be able to contend for a playoff spot.
Many of the teams with potential cap space have need of a backup point guard. Cleveland may make a push at the playoffs, and though Shaun Livingston was productive, could use a boost off the bench. If Portland is unable or does not wish to re-sign Eric Maynor, point guard will join every other position on their list of bench needs, and many teams may desire the scoring punch provided by the aggressive Jack.
The playoffs have likely hurt Jack’s ability to be considered as a potential starter, or at least a starter for a successful team, but he may not have had many opportunities in this role to begin with. Jack’s future as a well paid back up has not been dramatically damaged by his playoff performance, as teams are well aware of his flaws and will hope to limit those in a back up role.
I asked the ESPN’s Daily Dime Live what contract the dimers expected Jack to receive and from whom. Cole Patty, a write for Portland Roundball Society responded that he expected Jack to receive a four year, 40 million-dollar offer from the Utah Jazz. For a team that really should be rebuilding and developing young talent, this seems to me like an extreme commitment. I would expect Jack to receive a contract closer to three years, 21-30 million-dollars, possibly with a second year team option, especially if offered from the Jazz.
I also believe that it is best for the future of the Warriors to not re-sign Jarrett Jack. Jack prevented the Warriors from winning many winnable games, but also helped the Warriors to victory. In the aggregate, Jack was a positive contributor this year, but he, especially his crunch-time role, may hinder the development of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Harrison Barnes. Barnes lost many minutes to Jack and the Warriors’ three-guard lineups, Curry was forced off-ball, which, though it may help Curry short-term, is not conducive to the development of an elite point guard and scorer, and Thompson lost several shot attempts and ability to develop his ball-handling skills when Jack took over as point guard.
Part of my belief in Jack’s expendability may come from an irrational love for Kent Bazemore. I do not think that the Warriors’ three-guard lineups featuring Jack are necessary to their long-term success, especially when Jack forces Curry off-ball. In sporadic spurts, Kent Bazemore has shown himself to be a capable ball handler and impressive defender, and could likely play the back-up point guard for 10-15 minutes a game, with Brandon Rush replacing Jarrett Jack in the Warriors’ small ball units.
Jack has his high’s and low’s as a player, and though the playoffs have been a low, his value as a backup point-guard has not decreased significantly, and though it would likely be misguided to trust Jack as your starting point guard regardless of his playoff performance, the playoffs have displayed the flaws that prevent Jack from attaining this role.
Game 2 Live Blog
I live blogged Game 2 of the Warriors-Spurs second round series for Blue Man Hoop.
http://bluemanhoop.com/2013/05/08/live-blog-golden-state-warriors-take-on-san-antonio-spurs-in-game-1/
Was Game 1 the Greatest Game Ever?
(Written for Blue Man Hoop)
First off, any superlative designated without concrete proof will be subject to opinion, and determining the “best” is an often-impossible exercise that serves not to come to a definite conclusion, but to further collective appreciation for an incredible game.
As a Warriors fan, the last 15 or so minutes were as excruciating for me as I imagine they were exciting for an objective viewer, and while I have definitely experienced more “enjoyable” games, from an objective perspective, Game 1 was the pinnacle of basketball entertainment.
Historically, several factors have embedded games in our collective memories, and Game 1 had them all.
In the supposedly star-driven NBA, individual performances often stand above team results. We do not remember Game 6 of the 1980 NBA finals as the time the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Philadelphia 76ers to clinch the series. Instead, that game was made legendary by Magic Johnson’s brilliant performance in the absence of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Tales of Magic Johnson starting at center and playing every single position have persevered without regard to the team-level circumstances or results of the game, other than a basic knowledge of its importance and victor. Similarly, Game 6 of last year’s eastern conference finals between the Celtics and Heat, is often described as “The Lebron Game,” or more accurately, “one of several Lebron games.” Individual performances tend to capture attention to a greater degree than team-generated victories, and in Game 1, Stephen Curry provided plenty of individual achievement.
Curry was struggling through a mediocre night, but exploded in the third quarter, scoring 22 points as the Warriors seemingly put away the Spurs. What makes Curry’s performance even more memorable from a historical perspective are the stylistic differences between Curry and the great scorers of NBA history.
Here is Curry’s third quarter shot chart.
Curry only attempted two shots at the rim, and did not earn a single free-throw. Instead, Curry’s transcendent shooting provided the scoring punch. As such a singular, unique skill, Curry’s shooting amplifies his dominance, and leads to many of the more awe-inspiring shots made by any NBA player.
Along with individual performances, odds-defying comebacks are common among the NBA classics. Reggie Miller’s late game heroics against the New York Knicks inspired a 30-for-30 feature, and the name of a popular blog. In the reverse of Monday’s result, a San Antonio regular season game was immortalized when Tracy McGrady scored 13 points in 35 seconds to complete an improbable comeback.
Though equal parts comeback and collapse, Game 1 provided all the drama of these incredible games. The San Antonio Spurs became the first team ever to win a playoff game after trailing by 16 points in the final four minutes, moving teams in that unenviable situation to 1-and-393 all time.
If Stephen Curry’s 2013 playoff-high 44 points and a record-setting comeback were not enough, the game went through two overtimes and came down to the final possession. Manu Ginobli’s clutch three sealed the Spurs’ victory and put the finishing touches on the historically great Game 1.
The Blueprint for Slowing Down Tony Parker
(Written for Blue Man Hoop)
“Spurs basketball” has become synonymous with “efficiency”, and “playing to your strengths,” and, as much as even Tim Duncan, Tony Parker embodies San Antonio’s core values. As control of the offense shifted from Tim Duncan to him, Parker has expanded his offensive game, but only within the boundaries of efficiency. Though a late season ankle injury derailed his bid, Tony Parker was among the lower-ranking MVP candidates throughout the season.
Parker, along with most other Spurs, rarely attacks without advantage. Of course, a player a skilled and quick as Parker finds himself able to create advantageous situations far more than most players. According to Synergy, Parker ranks 14th in the league in isolation points per play, 24th off-screens, 15th in hand-off situations, 2nd on cuts, and 11th in the bread, butter, jam, plate, and accompanying glass of milk of his offense, the pick and roll. The pick and roll comprises 46.2% of Parker’s offensive possessions, and is the main the central component of San Antonio’s offense. San Antonio, which finished seventh in regular season offensive efficiency, either finishes or initiates many of its offensive possessions with a Parker-Duncan pick and roll, and generates opportunities for other players off defensive attention to this action.
Along with the high pick and roll, San Antonio uses a variety of sets to put Parker in position to score.
Here is the end result of a drag-screen/pin down play the Spurs often run. Parker, a 47.2 percent mid-range shooter, is wide open for the jumper, but also has an open lane towards the middle of the key as his man recovers from the baseline. If Pau Gasol steps down to help, Tim Duncan, a 43.3 percent mid-range shooter, will be wide open. If Dwight Howard steps up to cut off Parker, a Tiago Splitter will likely have an open dunk as Parker’s defender chases Parker. On this play, Parker takes and makes the mid-range jumper, but could have easily scored off the drive. Parker’s touch around the rim, as well as the ability to find open looks in the paint based off his speed and hesitation moves make him one of the best finishing guards in the league, evidenced by a 67.8 percent field goal percentage in the restricted area.
Here, Dwight Howard covers the pick and roll the same way Andrew Bogut is expected to. He drops into the paint, denying the drive, but leaving parker open for a mid-range jumper. This is a better result for the Lakers than an open driving lane would be, but just as Ty Lawson did in the first round, Parker will be able to convert a high rate of these open opportunities.
Parker’s main flaw is his inconsistent shooting from behind the arc. This season, he has made 37 percent of his left corner threes, an impressive 47.6 percent of his right corner threes, and only 21.1 percent of his above the break attempts. Perhaps more telling are Parker’s limited attempts. He has only taken 68 three-point shots this season. Of course, leaving Parker open for jump shots is simply not a good strategy. Though Synergy ranks him as the league’s 132nd best spot-up shooter, he still scores 1.01 points per play off these looks, a respectable points per-play (not to be confused with per possession: per possession factors in scoring opportunities off offensive rebounds, so per possession statistics for offenses will always show a higher offensive rating than per play) of 1.01.
The method for slowing Tony Parker has been in development since mid-season game against the Spurs, when, suffering from a fortunate bout of creative coaching, Mark Jackson started Klay Thompson on Tony Parker. Though he lacks the speed of top defenders like the recently-overcome Andre Iguodala, Thompson’s size length allow him to disrupt point guards throughout possessions by forcing them to create more space for passing and driving lanes, and open shots. In the first round, Mark Jackson showed a clear willingness to cross-match Thompson on to the quicker Ty Lawson, but did not fully commit to the strategy, as it often forced Stephen Curry to guard Andre Iguodala. With Brewer in the game, the Warriors were generally able to switch without repercussions, but did not always take advantage of the opportunity.
Here, Ty Lawson cannot get around Thompson as he comes off the screen, and is pulls up for the three. Thompson is long enough to contest the shot after sagging a couple feet off of Lawson to prevent the drive.
Against San Antonio, the Warriors should have an easier time switching Thompson on to Parker. Stephen Curry will be able to guard Danny Green for many minutes, without fearing foul trouble, or giving up a significant size advantage to a main offensive piece like he did against Iguodala.
If the Warriors are to have any hope of stopping Tony Parker and the Spurs’ offense, Andrew Bogut will have to consistently be as physically active and mobile as he was during his best stretches against Denver. Even if the series long exposure inspires Andre Iguodala level defense from Thompson, Tony Parker will find ways to the rim. Against Parker’s calculated rim attacks, Bogut, the last line of defense, must constantly be in position to deny scoring opportunities without forcing extra Warriors’ to rotate down defensively, forcing Parker to kick to the perimeter, not to open shooters, but as an outlet from a contested shot.
Draymond Green’s offensive play in the final games against Denver makes another intriguing option possible. So long is he is not too heavy a burden on the offense, Draymond Green may be the Warriors most effective pick and roll defending big man. Unlike Carl Landry and David Lee’s defense often suggest, the four-year college player already has a high-level understanding of pick and roll defense, and has the mobility to act upon this knowledge. Green saw more action as a perimeter defender than big man defender against Denver, but is one of the few Warriors who could effectively hedge and recover against Tony Parker off Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, or even Tim Duncan, who would likely take advantage of Green in the post.
The Warriors best option may simply be to force Parker to score and avoid compromising their rotations. Parker scored efficiently against the Lakers in the first round, but by overcompensating, the Lakers played right into the Spurs desires. San Antonio has put together a roster of shooters capable of taking advantage of any significant opening, and big men who can score in several situations. When defenses focus their attention on Parker, they open many more scoring opportunities for San Antonio’s vaunted offense.
Denver Avoids Elimination, Sends Series Back to Oakland
(Written for Blue Man Hoop)
Facing elimination, the Denver Nuggets jumped to an early lead in the first quarter, and dominated throughout the first half. Denver held on to a 20-point halftime lead, beating the Golden State Warriors 107-to-100.
Denver’s renewed aggressiveness may have manifested itself in more than just their play. In his post game press conference, Warriors’ coach Mark Jackson accused the Nuggets of trying to intentionally harm Stephen Curry. “(Denver) tried to send hit men on Steph,” said Jackson, who claimed to have been warned by members of the Nugget’s organization about Denver’s plans.
The Nuggets were physical with Curry all night, but a few plays stood out as especially rough. In the first quarter, Kenneth Faried elbowed Stephen Curry as he was coming off a screen, and appeared to try and trip him. No foul was called, and Jackson erupted at the sideline official.
Denver’s physicality and the Warriors’ complaints may be the dominant post-game story, but there were many other factors that contributed to Golden State’s comeback and Denver’s eventual victory, including Curry’s abnormal ineffectiveness from three-point range. Curry, 1-of-7, shot a lower percentage from behind the arc in only four games all season.
Why the Warriors Lost
The Warriors mounted an impressive comeback, outscoring Denver 31-21 in the fourth quarter, but could not overcome their struggles earlier in the game. The first quarter was a microcosm of what could have been for the Denver Nuggets. The Warriors struggled to score against Denver’s aggressive perimeter defenders, while the hyper-athletic Nuggets attacked the Warriors in transition, and pounded them in the half-court. The Nuggets out rebounded Golden State 46-33, and held the Warriors to 35-of-81 shooting and a 50 percent adjusted field goal percentage. Denver closed the game without a center, but did play Kosta Koufos and Javale McGee for a combined 35 minutes, contributing to the Warriors inability to convert opportunities near the basket.
This Golden-State shot chart reveals their struggles in the paint:
Key Stretch
With two minutes left in the game, the Warriors had eroded Denver’s 20 point halftime lead down to five, when Jarret Jack rebounded a missed three-point jumper by Wilson Chandler. The Warriors hurried in transition, opening Stephen Curry for a three pointer. Curry, missed, and Klay Thompson got the offensive rebound. Thompson passed out, the hustled to the right corner. Denver botched their matchups after the offensive rebounding, leaving Thompson open from the corner, but Thompson rimmed out the jump shot. Andre Igoudala rebounded, and the Nuggets eventually found Wilson Chandler for an open corner three, which he made. After two relatively open attempts by their two best three-point shooters gave them hope of a two-point deficit, the Warriors found themselves down eight with 1:25 remaining.
Notable Performances
Kenneth Faried had his first impressive performance of the postseason. Faried scored 13 points on 5-of-8 shooting, grabbed 10 rebounds, and finished a clutch alley-oop off a beautiful pass from Andre Miller.
Harrison Barnes continued his streak of strong games. Barnes was only 7-of-17, and experienced unexpected difficulties finishing around the rim, but made 5-of-10 attempts from behind the arc, a shooting performance that kept the Warriors within striking distance in the first half, and helped them close the gap in the second.
MVP
Andre Iguodala did his best LeBron James impersonation, carrying the Nuggets to victory with efficient scoring, lockdown defense, and creative passing. Iguodala scored 25 points on 10-of-17 shooting, recorded seven assists and twelve rebounds, and controlled the Nuggets offense through its best stretches of the game.
How Can the Warriors Slow Ty Lawson?
(Written for Blue Man Hoop)
Up two to one, with two more home games, the Warriors have to be feeling good. But, they have one nagging problem: Ty Lawson. Lawson struggled in game one, but has consistently abused the Warriors’ defense, setting up teammates and scoring himself. In game 3, Lawson exploded for 35 points on 22 field goal attempts and 11 free throw attempts.
While Lawson has been effective in transition, and iso’d on several possessions, the majority of his offense has been generated through the pick and roll. According to mysynergysports.com, Lawson ends 34.5 percent of his possessions as the pick and roll ball handler. In these situations, Lawson scores 0.89 points per play, 23rd best in the league. The Warriors had the league’s 13th best defense by points per play, but struggled to defend the pick and roll ball handler, allowing 0.83 points per play, 25th in the league.
The Warriors generally ice pick and rolls, especially when Bogut is involved. This is a good strategy for slowing the ball handler while giving the big man time to recover to the roll man, but forces the big man to attempt to contain the ball handler before the guard can recover, and against the lightning-quick Ty Lawson, the Warriors have struggled.
The Nuggets are often criticized for lacking a complex offense. Their possessions often devolve into a simple high pick and roll with little organized off ball movement. But in the last two games against the Warriors, at least when Ty Lawson plays, this has been effective. In games 2 and 3, the Nuggets have scored 124 and 128 points per 100 possessions with Lawson in the game. The play shown above demonstrates many of the options the Nuggets have available out of the high pick and roll.
Jarrett Jack is supposed to prevent Lawson from using Kenneth Faried’s screen, but is too far from Faried, who simply moves to the other side of Jack. In typical “ice” fashion, Bogut sags off the screen, hoping to prevent Lawson from getting to the basket, but because the screen was set so high, Bogut is forced to extend all the way to the elbow, far enough that Lawson has space to get by him. With Jack hung up on the screen, there is several feet of space between Lawson and any Warriors defenders, leaving Lawson wide open for a mid-range jump shot. Lawson shot 40.3 percent from mid-range this season, but since the all-star break, has made an incredible 52.4 percent of his mid range attempts, per to nba.com.
Lawson chooses to drive at the retreating Bogut, forcing Harrison Barnes to decide between cutting off the drive and staying on Wilson Chandler, a 41.3 percent three-point shooter. Barnes hesitates for a moment, ample time for Lawson to burn Bogut and get the rim with only Stephen Curry to defend him.
This is Ty Lawson’s shot chart for the first three games. Lawson has attempted 24 shots at the rim, and only 7 from mid-range. Though many of his at the rim shots come from transition opportunities, the Warriors have done a poor job forcing Lawson into taking mid-range jump shots. Though Lawson has shot a high percentage on these attempts recently, allowing him to get all the way to the basket draws help defenders, and compromises the Warriors far more than a hopefully semi-contested jump shot would.
Andrew Bogut is not yet mobile enough to contain Lawson beyond the free throw line, forcing the Warriors to find another method of defending one of the fastest players in the league. In the last few months of the regular season, and sporadically throughout the series with the Nuggets, the Warriors have defended point guards with the 6’-7” Klay Thompson. Like nearly every player in the league, Thompson is not quick enough to defend Lawson without help, but his size does allow him to be more effective in preventing Lawson from using screens and contesting pull up jump shots while remaining in position to deny the drive.
Klay Thompson may be able to slow Lawson, but defending any good scorer is a team effort. As Zach Lowe detailed for Grantland, NBA defenses are almost always under-help.
With Wilson Chandler out of the picture just crossing half court, Harrison Barnes should position himself at the free throw line and at least a step closer to Lawson, directly in his driving lane. Also, Andrew Bogut should step off Javale McGee and into the center of the line. Though he my fear another embarrassment at the hands of McGee, discouraging Lawson from penetrating should be the priority. In both this play and the play previously shown, Harrison Barnes should be much more aggressive with his help defense. Helping “one pass away” is a generally flawed practice, but intelligent positioning that allows a defender to guard his man and affect the ball handler will be necessary in the Warriors efforts to defend Ty Lawson.