Tag Archives: Golden State Warriors

Should The Warriors Trade Klay Thompson?

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Around the trade deadline, rumors of a potential Klay Thompson for Eric Gordon trade surfaced.  A particularly astute observer may realize that this trade never came to fruition.  However, the concept of a Klay Thompson trade has not been entirely eliminated.  Though they may appear set for the future, the Warriors are a team in flux.  With Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry’s possible departures looming, next year’s roster may be dramatically different from the one that challenged San Antonio in the second round.

 

By the 2014-2015 season, several of the Warriors’ major contracts expire, giving the Warriors the flexibility for several major moves.  Stephen Curry appears to be a star worth building around, and the Warriors must determine if the current core sets the team up for success better than another attainable option.

 

Klay Thompson’s playoff performance demonstrated many of his basic merits and flaws.  He played excellent defense on several wings as well as Ty Lawson and Tony Parker, and won the Warriors a few games with hot shooting.  However, in between the performances that have inspired national praise, Thompson is inconsistent at best, and was easily defended by Kawhi Leonard.  Though being shut down by a defender of Leonard’s caliber is no great shame for a developing player, Thompson did not display any of the skills necessary to contribute offensively when he can not get open for his own shots.

 

That adjective, “developing” is the reason why Thompson’s future is so uncertain.  Had he already reached his ceiling, he would be an entirely expendable piece, but the potential for Thompson to improve his dribbling ability, defense, finishing, shot selection, passing, and general basketball awareness make a trade for equal value difficult to justify.  For Thompson, the areas needing improvement constitute a majority of a basketball players’ function, but the potential for any significant improvement in any of these categories, combined with several of Thompson’s already above-average skills, renders Thompson as more than just another quality young player.

 

A Thompson trade would most likely target a player similar to Eric Gordon, though there are several other possibilities.  The Warriors may believe that the lack of an off the dribble penetrator limits the team’s success.  While Thompson is able to get into the lane, usually as defenders overplay his jump shot, he lacks the explosion and handle to consistently penetrate from the wing.  Even when Thompson gets into the lane, he is not consistently productive.  Thompsons’ penchant for creatively, misguidedly, and consistently missing layups is one of his biggest flaws.  Be it a jump from one side of the hoop to attempt a Carly Landry-esque reverse layup on the other, or a jump away from the defender while trying to toss up the layup across the body, “Klayups” are one of the many consistently entertaining aspects of Warriors basketball.  This season, Klay Thompson shot 51.06 percent in the restricted area, slightly below league average, and was dreadful from slightly farther out.

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Targeting a dribble penetrator is a simple enough idea, but as Thompson’s layups so often remind the unsuspecting viewer, even the simplest tasks can be difficult.  Despite what the preceding paragraph may suggest, young players on rookie contracts have an inherently high value in the NBA.  The modern dedication to floor spacing gives Thompson and his ability to function as a “three and D” type player an important role in the league regardless of potential improvements.

 

Given Thompson’s relatively impressive playoff performance any Thompson trade will likely bring back a potential or actual all-star.  Even if the Warriors believe that a dribble penetrator more consistent than Stephen Curry is necessary a trade may not be necessary.  Harrison Barnes, especially towards the end of the season, flashed potential as a secondary ball handler.  Barnes has the speed and athleticism to get to the rim and finish when he gets there, and along with Thompson, is expected to improve dramatically as he gains experience.

 

The Warriors would be unwise to completely ignore all Thompson trade offers, but openly shopping Thompson when the market has little of attainable equivalent value to offer is not a more desirable alternative.  Klay Thompson has several flaws, but also has a very attainable potential to become a high-level player.  Trading David Lee may be a path worth exploring, but Lee’s value, both on the market and to the Warriors, is a topic worthy of another article.

Could The Warriors Have Beaten San Antonio With A Healthy David Lee

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(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

For the many eliminated playoff teams, the weeks after elimination are a time of regret.  With the draft lottery looming, 14 teams are hoping for the fortune that eluded them during the regular season, leaving now-eliminated playoff teams to reflect on what could have been.  While many Warriors fans may be looking forward, eagerly waiting to build on this season’s playoff success, some may still be mired in frustration.

 

Among more enjoyable trends, injuries have been a central theme of this postseason, and as anyone reading this article has heard, the Warriors were not left unscathed.  David Lee tore his hip-flexor during Game 1 of the Warriors’ first round series against the Nuggets.  Lee was expected to miss the rest of the season, but played limited minutes versus San Antonio.

 

Lee did play a role off the bench, generally as an offensive interlude to begin the second quarter, but was drastically limited in role and effectiveness.  Playing almost entirely without their lone all-star, the Warriors lost 4-2, but contended in nearly every game.

 

The Spurs played consistently excellent defense on Stephen Curry and seemingly benefited from a severe injury to Curry’s ankle.  A healthy Lee demands defensive attention that may otherwise have been focused on Curry, and could have helped in freeing Curry offensively.  Lee is a very good offensive big man.  The Curry-Lee pick and roll was the staple of the Warriors’ productive regular season offense.  Per mysysnergysports.com, 20 percent of the Warriors offense was finished by a pick and roll ball handler or roll man.  This would be a significant portion without considering Lee, Curry, and other Warriors’ passing out of the pick and roll to other players after forcing defensive helping help.

 

So, it stands to reason that adding a fully healthy Lee would have drastically increased the Warriors chance at upsetting San Antonio, right?

 

Well, maybe not.  During the regular season, the healthy David Lee played in all four of the Warriors games versus San Antonio, totaling 155 minutes, about 38 minutes per game.  Though this is a small sample size, and the playoffs are a different situation, Lee did nothing in these minutes to signify that San Antonio would struggle with him in the playoffs.  The Spurs held Lee to a far below average 47.3 percent true shooting percentage, and Lee was not compensating for this in other areas.  Lee rebounded 17.8 percent of available rebounds, only slightly above his regular season 16.8 percent rebound percentage, and his assist percentage dropped from 16.8 percent to 12.1 percent.  Furthermore, Lee’s inefficiency and lack of creation did not come in a decoy role similar to Curry’s post-injury, but at a greater usage than his season average, meaning Lee’s offensive struggles had an increased impact.

With Lee on the court in the regular season versus San Antonio, the Warriors surrendered a respectable 101.1 points per 100 possessions, but only scored 99.6.  With David Lee off the court, the Warriors allowed only 98.9 points per 100 possessions, and scored 104.6.  While these sample sizes, especially the 42 possessions with Lee off the court are too small to be determinant, they do not suggest that a healthy Lee would have helped the Warriors.

 

In the series against San Antonio, the Warriors scored 101.9 points per 10 possessions, and allowed 105.9.  The Warriors had an offensive rating of 106.5 and a defensive rating of 105.5 during the regular season.  Their offense struggled against San Antonio during the playoffs, while the defense was only slightly worse than average.  However, in their two victories, the Warriors held San Antonio to 92 points per 100 possessions, and scored 102.7.  Elite defense, rather than elite offense seemed to be the Warriors winning formula versus San Antonio, and though David Lee helps an offense, his defense is damning.

 

Though some may find his precise passing majestic, Lee earned the nickname “Golden Gate” for a different reason.  Interior help defense is arguably the most important singular role in NBA defense.  Defenders, generally big men, must prevent opposing offenses from getting easy looks at the rim and finishing when they do.  Simply put, Lee protects the rim worse than almost every big man in the league.  With David Lee on the court, the Warriors’ opponents attempted 27.4 percent of their shots from zero to three feet, and converted 64.2 percent of those opportunities.  With Lee off, 25.8 percent of opponents’ attempts came from that range and only 60.8 percent were converted.  According to HoopData, the league average field goal percentage from three feet and in was 64.6 percent.  When David Lee came off the court, the Warriors improved from slightly above league average to fourth in the league at opponent field goal percentage within three feet.   If further evidence of Lee’s defensive deficiency is necessary, along with coining the name Golden Gate, Kirk Goldsberry detailed and attempted to explain this phenomenon for Grantland.

 

 

Lee’s poor defense extends beyond rim protection.  While the Warriors help schemes protect Lee in the pick and roll, Lee struggles to defend other offensive attacks.  Lee’s slow lateral speed leaves him vulnerable to drives, often forcing him to compensate by giving his man a wide-open jump shot.   According to Synergy, Lee allows 0.94 points per play to isolations, 275th in the league.  Lee’s poor positioning and effort have effects just as adverse as his foot-speed.  Lee rarely positions himself well to defend post ups (along with most other plays), allowing 0.84 points per play to post ups, 143rd in the league.

 

Though Lee’s offense is beneficial, a team like San Antonio is well prepared to exploit any and all defensive flaws presented by their opponent.  In Game 1 of the San Antonio-Memphis series, Tony Allen, widely considered an elite defender, was victimized by San Antonio’s ball movement as they repeatedly took advantage of his inconsistent off-ball defense.  The Warriors best performances versus San Antonio were more a result of productive defense than offense, and while a healthy Lee may have given the Warriors a new weapon against the Spurs offense, he often creates many more holes in the Warriors own armor.

 

San Antonio Drops The Hammer: Death By Execution

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(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

 

Game after game, year after year, the San Antonio Spurs exercise their calculated, methodical genius.  Possession after possession, play after play, the Spurs pass, cut, screen, and penetrate their way through the opponents’ defense, and though the defense resists, the Spurs almost inevitably find their shot.  “The hammer”, the set shown above, represents many of the principles of San Antonio’s offense.  While San Antonio’s system whittles away at a defense, it is the aptly named “hammer” that often drives the final nail.San Antonio’s hammer sets, as the video shows, generally involve off and on ball movement prior to this point, but the first key step is what appears to be a high screen.  San Antonio knows that many defenses attempt to prevent the ball handler from using the screen.  In accordance with the set, San Antonio has cleared the middle of the floor, leaving an open lane for the ball-handler, in this case Cory Joseph, to drive.As the guard drives, the weak-side defensive big man is forced to step in to contest.  Meanwhile, San Antonio’s big man sets a back screen on the defensive wing, usually a couple steps off his man in help position, while San Antonio’s shooter cuts to the corner, setting up an easy pass to a wide-open man for the best shot in basketball.While the specific play may have been used no more than a couple times against the Warriors, it displays the intelligence that couples with San Antonio’s talent to make the team as successful as it is.  The Spurs account for the nuances of the opposing teams expected defense on the initial deceptive screen, and take advantage of help schemes with the back screen.The Warriors may have resisted San Antonio, riding their own hot shooting and San Antonio’s unexpected turnovers and inconsistent shooting to two victories, but a large part of the Warriors performance was simply unsustainable if the Warriors hoped to win.  The Warriors presented an intriguing case, but not one that held up against San Antonio’s aggressive examination.  From their own shooting to the Spurs’ struggles to convert on repeated open corner threes, among other opportunities, the Warriors could not maintain their performance, and were, like many teams before them, sentenced to death by San Antonio’s compassionless execution.

Fortunately for the Warriors, the NBA death is not finite.  The Warriors have next year, and an eternity after that, to build on this season.  While a loss is never welcome, the San Antonio Spurs gave the Warriors a model on which they can base their aspirations.  While the brilliance of Duncan, Parker, and Ginobli may be responsible for much of San Antonio’s success, the Spurs have set the standard for player development and on court execution for several years.  Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, and Danny Green, recent products of San Antonio’s system were key in carrying out the Warriors’ sentence.

The Spurs, at least more so than other teams, take advantage of their players’ talents, bringing success not just to the players but to the entire team, and apart from a few creative diversions from Manu Ginobli, the Spurs’ players generally stay within this system.

The Warriors have a bright future, but as the Spurs have shown the last few years, success is not guaranteed.  While loss is not always a learning experience, the Warriors could learn learn a lot from the Spurs.

Will the Warriors Be Able to Keep Jarrett Jack?

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The Warriors’ season came to an end Thursday, and though there is time to reflect on the season that was, the team’s main focus is on the future.  Stephen Curry, a young star, and very good young players with star potential inspire hope for the long run, but the near future may be cloudy.

 

Jarrett Jack’s contract expires this offseason, and with a free-agent payday looming Carly Landry will likely not pick up his 4 million dollar player option for next season.  Jack and Landry keyed the Warriors’ bench this year, and played important roles in many end of game lineups.  Jack and Landry were members of the Warriors third most played lineup during the regular season.

 

Assuming that Richard Jefferson picks up his 11 million dollar player option, that Andris Biedrins does not invoke his early termination option, and that the injured Brandon Rush picks up his 4 million dollar player option, the Warriors will have $71,680,588 on the books for next year, according to basketball-reference.  This season’s salary cap was $58.044 million and the luxury tax line was $70.03 million.  The salary cap and luxury tax line change season to season, but the Warriors as currently constructed will be well over the salary cap in any situation.  Trades, contract buy-outs, and other moves can be made to decrease team salary, but any major salary cutting trade would likely require surrendering a core player or future draft pick in compensation.

 

The Warriors reportedly attempted to negotiate an extension with Jack in January, but Jack declined, wanting to focus on the season.  Despite this, Jarrett Jack has made it clear that he would like to re-sign with the Warriors.  When asked about a return to the Warriors, Jack said, “Obviously there are other things that go into seeing if that works — we all know this is a business at the end of the day. If I could do it, if I could rearrange it, I would definitely be back at this same locker.”

 

Jarrett Jack may hope to re-sign with the Warriors, but acknowledges that there are many factors that will influence his decision.  After an impressive season in which he finished 3rd in 6th Man of the Year voting, Jack likely expects to receive a significant salary increase, be it from the Warriors or another team.  As was addressed in greater detail here, there are several teams with the ability to offer Jack a multi-year, higher salary contract that would benefit from his services.  The Warriors have Jack’s Bird-Rights, and thus will be able to re-sign him despite being over the salary cap, but will have to compete with teams able to offer Jack more lucrative contracts without suffering the luxury tax penalties.

 

Those not completely overwhelmed by the playoff run may remember the trade deadline, when the Warriors traded two seemingly inconsequential players, Charles Jenkins and Jeremy Tyler, for “draft considerations.”  Though the two players had no real impact on the Warriors season and the “draft considerations” will more than likely amount to top-55 protected second round picks, this trade still impacts the Warriors future.  By trading Jenkins and Tyler, the Warriors dipped just under the luxury tax for the season.  Part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement was an increased tax on teams whose salary exceeded the luxury tax line three years in a row.  Most contending NBA teams have salaries above the luxury tax, in some cases tens of million of dollars above.  By dropping below the tax line, the Warriors give themselves a prolonged buffer to avoid this “repeater tax,” allowing them to go over the tax this year without having to get back under immediately after.

 

The Warriors owners’ willingness to pay the luxury tax is not yet proven, but they do appear committed to success.  Re-signing Jack would force the Warriors several millions of dollars over the luxury tax line, and incur financial penalties for the ownership group, but forward thinking at the trade deadline puts the Warriors in position to pay the luxury tax without extreme consequences.

 

This same forward thinking, however, may be what keeps the Warriors from re-signing Jack.  The Warriors are currently suffering the consequences of poor prior decision.  Their plans for the future are being dictated by mistakes of the past; namely Richard Jefferson, Andris Biedrins, and even David Lee and Andrew Bogut.  These bloated contracts drastically limit the Warriors flexibility, limiting their options for next year.  Though keeping Jarrett Jack may seem to be a priority now, the Warriors want to avoid limiting their future.  If the Warriors ever become true contenders, it will likely not be for a couple years.  If the marketplace dictates that Jack receive a contract above his value, the Warriors may wish to avoid recreating a situation that has haunted them this year.

 

Jarrett Jack appears to wish to re-sign with the Warriors, perhaps for less than he could receive elsewhere, and while this may be the case, Jack could follow the path of prior local hero Baron Davis, who left for the Los Angeles Clippers, or could be forced on the route of Paul Pierce, who the Celtics may be trying to trade despite emotional ties.

Stephen Curry: How Can He Get Back On Track?

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Stephen Curry’s hot hand may be limited to the court, but over the last month he has set the basketball world on fire.  After suffering through the Curry experience in Game 1, the Spurs began experimenting new defensive strategies to be used on Curry.  Amid the cries of “top five point guard!” and “best shooter ever!” Gregg Popovich was focused on slowing the newly anointed star.

 

Though likely helped by an ankle injury, the Spurs have greatly limited Curry since Game 2.  In three games since the Game 2 victory in San Antonio, Stephen Curry has a true shooting percentage of only 47.9 percent, far below of 58.9 percent true shooting during the regular season and 57.1 percent for the playoffs.  These struggles have not simply been a matter of scoring efficiency.  Curry’s assist percentage (percent of teammates field goals assisted while on court) has dropped from his regular season 31.1 percent to 24.1 percent, and his usage rate has dropped from 26.4 percent to 22.6 percent.  Along with dramatically limiting his efficiency, the Spurs have pressured Curry out of his typical rate of creation.

 

In Game 1 Tony Parker was Stephen Curry’s primary defender.  Since then, Curry has primarily faced Danny Green, with intermittent spurts versus Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard.  Tony Parker is a match-up liability versus the Warriors’ large wings, but the Spurs are clearly willing to surrender this in exchange for the ability to keep Green consistently matched up with Curry.

 

In his second year in San Antonio, Danny Green has developed into a very good perimeter defender.  Warriors fans may recognize his ability to use his length to his advantage after recently admiring Klay Thompson’s defense.  Green also has the strength, quickness, defensive instincts, and understanding of help-schemes to be a very good defender both on and off the ball.

 

Green’s willingness to pick up James Harden so far from the basket does not suggest he would ever give Curry the space to take an uncontested jump shot, as Harden is a far greater threat to attack the rim than Curry.

 

Green will not willingly surrender an inch of space on the perimeter, and in the pick and roll, the Spurs big men have been more committed to hedging and trapping Curry since Game 2.

 

Green, assisted by Curry’s shift to an off ball role, has done very well in limiting Curry’s space and denying any shooting opportunities.  Over the course of the series, Curry has shifted towards an off-ball role.  This off-ball role in Game 4 may have been induced by an ankle injury at the end of Game 3, but Curry’s shift began before Game 4, and continued through Game 5, when Curry appeared less hampered by ankle troubles.  This shift to an off-ball role may be due to a belief that Curry puts more pressure on the defense running through off-ball screens, or that Curry needs the structured spacing of these plays to find scoring opportunities, but regardless of the Warriors’ motivation, Danny Green, along with the entire Spurs defense, has been excellent in preventing Curry from performing well offensively in this role.

 

To get Curry “going” again, the Warriors can wait for some miracle shooting, or proactively create beneficial offensive opportunities.  They have attempted to free Curry for jump shots through off-ball action, but the disciplined Spurs have allowed very little space to Curry, often hedging or not-so-accidentally bumping Curry as he runs through off-ball screens.  Athletic defenders like Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are able to chase Curry through these patterns without losing any significant ground.

 

Throughout the seasons, Curry’s primary method of on-ball attack was the pick and roll.  32.2 percent of Curry’s shot attempts, drawn fouls, or turnovers were generated through the pick and roll, far more than any other category tracked by mysynergysports.com.  The Warriors recognize Curry’s proficiency in the pick and roll, and have developed a complex offense around the pick and roll.

 

Curry’s pick and roll are generally initiated from to locations, the top of key above the three-point line, or slightly above the break.  Against top of the key pick and rolls, the Spurs big men generally stay in the paint, leaving Curry open for mid-range jump shots.  Possibly because the athleticism of Green and Leonard makes these shots more difficult, Curry has been less aggressive off top of the key pick and rolls.  He made his way into the paint off several at the beginning of Game 5, but went away from this action as the game progressed.

 

With the Warriors seemingly committed to using Curry off-ball, especially when Jarrett Jack is playing, many of Curry’s recent pick and rolls have been initiated towards the wing.  Curry generally finishes off-ball plays in the corner or near the break, and drifts towards the wing.  As the primary ball-handler, Curry will often dribble to this spot to set up the pick and roll.

 

Throughout the season, the Warriors ran these “Hawk Angle” pick and rolls.  This action is generally preceded by a cutter running through the lane.

 

Against San Antonio, the Warriors have been reluctant to send this cutter when running hawk-angle pick and rolls.

 

 

In this play, Klay Thompson sets the screen for Curry, and rolls towards the right corner.  The Warriors spacing on this play allows Boris Diaw to defend and box out both Landry and Lee, leaving Tim Duncan free to cover any penetration, meaning Kawhi Leonard can hedge aggressively deny the jump shot before recovering to Thompson.

 

The goal of this pick and roll may just be to draw a Parker switch onto Thompson, but the Warriors have run the hawk-angle pick and roll without sending the cutter regardless of the screener during this series.  Even if Klay Thompson were on the opposite wing and David Lee was setting the screen, the  Spurs’ help defenders would be able to free Duncan by having the man in the corner step down to fill Duncan’s rotation, only punishable by an extremely difficult kick pass by Curry to the opposite corner only LeBron James has mastered.

 

 

 

On this iteration of the hawk angle pick and roll, Klay Thompson runs through the lane as Harrison Barnes comes to set the screen.  This forces the defense to account for Thompson running through the lane and coming off a screen on the opposite side, forcing Howard and Gasol to commit to help defense longer than expected, giving Curry more room to operate both in the middle of the court and on the right side.

 

Curry’s ankle injury may render any hope for Curry’s re-emergence as an offensive star a failure, but putting Curry in position to succeed is necessary if the Warriors hope to come back in the series.  Off-ball actions often devolve into simple isolations on the catch, and against the Spurs have rarely produced open looks.  Operating out of the pick and roll allows Curry to create or find his own space, and affects San Antonio’s defense much more than spot-ups and off-ball screens typically do.  Stephen Curry has become an elite offensive NBA player, and as any Knicks (or general NBA) viewer will confirm, putting an offensive talent in position to succeed involves more than simply getting them the ball.

Are the Warriors Better off With Stephen Curry in an off-ball roll?

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(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

Early in Stephen Curry’s career, there was uncertainty as to whether he should play shooting guard or point guard.  Some thought Curry lacked the ball handling and court awareness to run the point.  Curry has put these concerns to rest, but there is still some public doubt as to which role maximizes Curry’s talents and the Warriors’ efficiency.

However, the Warriors still often use Curry in an off ball roll.  Throughout the games, the Warriors run series of screens designed to free Curry for a shot while another player, typically Jarrett Jack, runs the offense. These plays typically come in the form of a “floppy” set, in which Curry takes a series of staggered screens, generally looking for a corner three point attempt, while allowing structured reads and general improvisation through the play, or more simple pin-downs, which can result in a spot up look, but often lead into a pick and roll.

Along with their more basic sets, the Warriors have developed unique play designs, including the “Figure 8” set:

and the “Elevator Play”:

Curry is one of the league’s most effective off-ball shooters.  According to mysynergysports.com, Curry scores 1.35 points per play in spot-up situations, 5th in the league, and 1.07 points per play off screens, 20th in the league.

The Warriors use Curry off-ball throughout games, but much of his off ball play comes in the fourth quarter, when Jarrett Jack often runs the offense, with Curry spacing the floor.

Even off-ball, Curry demands the constant attention of the defense.  Curry’s defender often needs to chase him through screens and around the court, and the rest of the defense must hedge, trap, and deny screens to give Curry’s defender time to recover.  This often draws defensive help from the ball handler, allowing Jarrett Jack, Klay Thompson, and the other Warriors to attack with decreased defensive pressure.

However, the defensive attention drawn by Curry off ball does far less to benefit the Warriors than Curry’s on ball creation.  Curry scores effectively on-ball.  He is the league’s 27th best pick and roll ball handler and 32nd best isolation scorer in terms of points per play, and had an impressive assist percentage of 29.8 percent during the regular season.

Curry is able to create scoring opportunities for both himself and for teammates, and his teammates are much more efficient at converting the looks Curry generates for them than they are at attacking when Curry is playing an off-ball roll.  With David Lee no longer available to take advantage of defensive attention on Curry off-ball, Curry’s creation becomes even more necessary to the Warriors’ offense.

Warriors Secure Split, Even Series at 2-2

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The Warriors overcame poor shooting and an eight-point halftime deficit to even the series at two games apiece.  The Warriors held the Spurs to 35.5 percent shooting, only slightly worse than their 38.0 percent performance, and were especially effective defensively to end the game.  After injuring his ankle at the end of Game 3, Stephen Curry appeared slowed, and spent the majority of the game off the ball, often forgotten as the Warriors struggled offensively.

Why the Warriors Won:      

In classic Warriors fashion, the Warriors controlled the boards and dominated defensively.  Well, maybe it was not the typical Golden State victory, and maybe the Warriors’ defensive success was as much a result of poor shooting by San Antonio as it was due to the Warriors’ actions, but the Warriors grabbed several key offensive rebounds, made a few vital stops, and received just enough assistance from San Antonio to eek out a victory.

Key Stretch:  

With 4:18 left in the fourth quarter, Kawhi Leonard pulled down an easy offensive and scored on an uncontested layup, putting the Spurs up 80 to 72.  Over the next three possessions, Jarrett Jack made three straight midrange jumpers, while the Spurs scored only once, decreasing the lead to four.  More importantly, the Jack had returned some semblance of offensive production to the Warriors’ offense while the Spurs’ struggles continued.

MVP:

Today’s award goes to Jarrett Jack, almost by default.  Jack scored 24 points on 9-of-16 shooting, and though they eventually won, Jack led the Warriors through many offensive possessions that were nothing more than offensive.  Jack did not play well defensively, though he was not abused to the same degree as prior games, but someone has to take credit for the Warriors’ late game comeback.  Jack keyed the Warriors offense down the stretch, avoided any crippling turnovers, and was efficient enough for the Warriors to win.

Notable Performances:

Stephen Curry, despite appearing immobile for many stretches, scored 22 points on 7-of-15 shooting.  Curry was a team high plus-23 in his 39 minutes, but was not able to be the offensive focus on whom the Warriors have come to rely.  Harrison Barnes attempted a career-high 26 field goals, but only made nine.  Barnes repeatedly attacked out of the mid-post and off wing isolations, often against the smaller Tony Parker and Gary Neal.

On a night when nearly every player struggled offensively, Manu Ginobli may have been the most dynamic.  Ginobli made 5-of-10 attempts from behind the arc, and converted 8-of-18 shots to score 21 points.  Ginobli missed several key attempts towards the end of the game, and though he created much of the Spurs’ offense, he often damaged it as well.

How Has Jarrett Jack’s Playoff Performance Affected His Free-Agent Value?

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San Antonio Spurs v Golden State Warriors

(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

On May 2nd, Marcus Thompson reported that Jarrett Jack did not intend to sign an extension with the Warriors, and would enter free agency.  In the article, Thompson wrote, “He is expected to be a fairly well sought after this offseason, especially with the postseason he’s having, as multiple teams are looking for a point guard.”

 

Jack may have impressed in his first few postseason games, but after recent difficulties, he has emerged as the scapegoat for most of the Warriors’ struggles.  Statistically, Jack is only slightly worse than he was during the regular season, but several blown key decisions, typical egregious shot-selection without expected results, and defensive lapses have turned many Warriors’ fans against the sixth man.

 

During the playoffs, Jack has recorded a Player Efficiency Rating of 15.9, the exact same as his regular season P.E.R.  Jack has scored 16.2 points per 36 minutes, 0.5 above his season production, and has actually increased his efficiency in doing so.  Jack shot a 54.2 percent true shooting percentage during the regular season, which has improved to 57.8 percent through nine playoff games.

 

Jack primarily functions as a scoring guard, and while he has maintained his scoring ability, his contribution in other areas have dramatically decreased.  Jack’s assist percentage has decreased from 29.9 percent to 22.8, and his turnover percentage has increased from 14.3.0 to 21.0.

 

The increased turnover rates and decreased assist rates are especially noticeable given Stephen Curry’s outstanding playoffs.  Jack is blamed for taking potential shots from Curry, Thompson, and the other Warriors, and often takes the fall for their struggles while appearing irrelevant to their successes.

 

So, how has Jarret Jack’s playoff performance affected his free agent value?

 

First off, I do not expect that general manager’s typically put a ton of stock into playoff performance over a limited number of games.  The nine games Jack has played in the playoffs represent 10.2 percent of Jack’s total games played this season.  While this is not an entirely insignificant portion, there is plenty of data available that should influence a GM’s decision more than these playoffs.  We often ridicule GM’s for judging a college player based on his performance in a few tournament games, and a judgment of Jack based solely on his playoff performance would be worthy of equal ridicule.

 

However, Jack’s play does reveal several of the major flaws in Jack’s game.  He is a scoring guard whose shot-selection would not generally lead to efficient scoring, struggles defensively, and whose poor court vision is often detrimental to his team.  He repeatedly makes bad decisions, highlighted by a hilariously awful turnover at the end of Game 3 versus San Antonio, and does not appear conscious of his struggles.

 

Jack’s ability to lead an effective offense has been brought into question by his struggles without Curry on the court, damaging his value to teams, such as the Utah Jazz, searching for a lead guard.  If Jack’s 16 game disaster spanning March was not enough to make teams aware of this, the playoffs exemplify why Jack’s current role may already be beyond his ability.

 

The Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Bobcats, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, New Orleans Hornets, Orlando Magic,Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, and Utah Jazz will all have sufficient cap space to offer Jack a contract paying more than his current 5 million dollar salary.

 

In free agency, Jack will likely be looking for a significant increase in both salary and role.  He may be willing to remain a backup point guard, perhaps still with the Warriors, but it is unlikely that he would do so without a pay raise and long-term contract.

 

Of the teams listed, four, Cleveland, Houston, Phoenix, and Portland, have point guards already under contract next season who would likely not surrender the starting role to Jack.  Though Jameer Nelson may not be a better player than Jack, it is highly unlikely that the rebuilding Orlando would want to add Jack’s contract, as they, along with Charlotte, have no real motive to attempt to improve next season. Several of the teams listed have free-agent point guards they could likely re-sign.  Atlanta will negotiate to keep Jeff Teague, Brandon Jennings has hinted at signing the qualifying offer with Milwaukee, and Jose Calderon may re-sign with Detroit, who could easily switch Brandon Knight back to point guard.  Sacramento may or may not be able to retain Tyreke Evans, who is generally used as a small forward or shooting guard, already has Isaiah Thomas, and has no need for another shoot first guard.  New Orleans is likely comfortable with Greivis Vasquez as a starter, though he is possibly worse than Jack defensively, and would likely rather keep their options open than pay Jack to continue their mediocrity.

 

Though the NBA landscape can obviously change very quickly, these conditions present only one destination for Jarrett Jack that would likely offer him the starting job; Utah.  The Jazz finished the regular season 43-39, and contended for a playoff spot until the final week of the season despite playing with a point guard rotation of an often-injured Mo Williams, Jamaal Tinsley, Earl Watson, and Alec Burks.  The cap space through which Jarrett Jack would potentially be signed will be created by the possible departure of their leading big men, Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap.  Utah may feel that the presence of a decent point guard will recreate the offensive production of Jefferson or Millsap, and that, with Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter waiting to replace the incumbent starters, the team will again be able to contend for a playoff spot.

 

Many of the teams with potential cap space have need of a backup point guard. Cleveland may make a push at the playoffs, and though Shaun Livingston was productive, could use a boost off the bench.  If Portland is unable or does not wish to re-sign Eric Maynor, point guard will join every other position on their list of bench needs, and many teams may desire the scoring punch provided by the aggressive Jack.

 

The playoffs have likely hurt Jack’s ability to be considered as a potential starter, or at least a starter for a successful team, but he may not have had many opportunities in this role to begin with.  Jack’s future as a well paid back up has not been dramatically damaged by his playoff performance, as teams are well aware of his flaws and will hope to limit those in a back up role.

 

I asked the ESPN’s Daily Dime Live what contract the dimers expected Jack to receive and from whom.  Cole Patty, a write for Portland Roundball Society responded that he expected Jack to receive a four year, 40 million-dollar offer from the Utah Jazz.  For a team that really should be rebuilding and developing young talent, this seems to me like an extreme commitment.  I would expect Jack to receive a contract closer to three years, 21-30 million-dollars, possibly with a second year team option, especially if offered from the Jazz.

 

I also believe that it is best for the future of the Warriors to not re-sign Jarrett Jack.  Jack prevented the Warriors from winning many winnable games, but also helped the Warriors to victory.  In the aggregate, Jack was a positive contributor this year, but he, especially his crunch-time role, may hinder the development of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Harrison Barnes.  Barnes lost many minutes to Jack and the Warriors’ three-guard lineups, Curry was forced off-ball, which, though it may help Curry short-term, is not conducive to the development of an elite point guard and scorer, and Thompson lost several shot attempts and ability to develop his ball-handling skills when Jack took over as point guard.

 

Part of my belief in Jack’s expendability may come from an irrational love for Kent Bazemore.  I do not think that the Warriors’ three-guard lineups featuring Jack are necessary to their long-term success, especially when Jack forces Curry off-ball.  In sporadic spurts, Kent Bazemore has shown himself to be a capable ball handler and impressive defender, and could likely play the back-up point guard for 10-15 minutes a game, with Brandon Rush replacing Jarrett Jack in the Warriors’ small ball units.

 

Jack has his high’s and low’s as a player, and though the playoffs have been a low, his value as a backup point-guard has not decreased significantly, and though it would likely be misguided to trust Jack as your starting point guard regardless of his playoff performance, the playoffs have displayed the flaws that prevent Jack from attaining this role.