Denver Avoids Elimination, Sends Series Back to Oakland

(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

Facing elimination, the Denver Nuggets jumped to an early lead in the first quarter, and dominated throughout the first half.  Denver held on to a 20-point halftime lead, beating the Golden State Warriors 107-to-100.

Denver’s renewed aggressiveness may have manifested itself in more than just their play.  In his post game press conference, Warriors’ coach Mark Jackson accused the Nuggets of trying to intentionally harm Stephen Curry.  “(Denver) tried to send hit men on Steph,” said Jackson, who claimed to have been warned by members of the Nugget’s organization about Denver’s plans.

The Nuggets were physical with Curry all night, but a few plays stood out as especially rough.  In the first quarter, Kenneth Faried elbowed Stephen Curry as he was coming off a screen, and appeared to try and trip him.  No foul was called, and Jackson erupted at the sideline official.

Denver’s physicality and the Warriors’ complaints may be the dominant post-game story, but there were many other factors that contributed to Golden State’s comeback and Denver’s eventual victory, including Curry’s abnormal ineffectiveness from three-point range.  Curry, 1-of-7, shot a lower percentage from behind the arc in only four games all season.

Why the Warriors Lost

The Warriors mounted an impressive comeback, outscoring Denver 31-21 in the fourth quarter, but could not overcome their struggles earlier in the game.  The first quarter was a microcosm of what could have been for the Denver Nuggets.  The Warriors struggled to score against Denver’s aggressive perimeter defenders, while the hyper-athletic Nuggets attacked the Warriors in transition, and pounded them in the half-court.  The Nuggets out rebounded Golden State 46-33, and held the Warriors to 35-of-81 shooting and a 50 percent adjusted field goal percentage.  Denver closed the game without a center, but did play Kosta Koufos and Javale McGee for a combined 35 minutes, contributing to the Warriors inability to convert opportunities near the basket.

This Golden-State shot chart reveals their struggles in the paint:

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Key Stretch

With two minutes left in the game, the Warriors had eroded Denver’s 20 point halftime lead down to five, when Jarret Jack rebounded a missed three-point jumper by Wilson Chandler.  The Warriors hurried in transition, opening Stephen Curry for a three pointer.  Curry, missed, and Klay Thompson got the offensive rebound.  Thompson passed out, the hustled to the right corner.  Denver botched their matchups after the offensive rebounding, leaving Thompson open from the corner, but Thompson rimmed out the jump shot.  Andre Igoudala rebounded, and the Nuggets eventually found Wilson Chandler for an open corner three, which he made.  After two relatively open attempts by their two best three-point shooters gave them hope of a two-point deficit, the Warriors found themselves down eight with 1:25 remaining.

Notable Performances

Kenneth Faried had his first impressive performance of the postseason.  Faried scored 13 points on 5-of-8 shooting, grabbed 10 rebounds, and finished a clutch alley-oop off a beautiful pass from Andre Miller.

Harrison Barnes continued his streak of strong games.  Barnes was only 7-of-17, and experienced unexpected difficulties finishing around the rim, but made 5-of-10 attempts from behind the arc, a shooting performance that kept the Warriors within striking distance in the first half, and helped them close the gap in the second.

MVP

Andre Iguodala did his best LeBron James impersonation, carrying the Nuggets to victory with efficient scoring, lockdown defense, and creative passing.  Iguodala scored 25 points on 10-of-17 shooting, recorded seven assists and twelve rebounds, and controlled the Nuggets offense through its best stretches of the game.

How Can the Warriors Slow Ty Lawson?

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(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

Up two to one, with two more home games, the Warriors have to be feeling good.  But, they have one nagging problem: Ty Lawson.  Lawson struggled in game one, but has consistently abused the Warriors’ defense, setting up teammates and scoring himself.  In game 3, Lawson exploded for 35 points on 22 field goal attempts and 11 free throw attempts.

While Lawson has been effective in transition, and iso’d on several possessions, the majority of his offense has been generated through the pick and roll.  According to mysynergysports.com, Lawson ends 34.5 percent of his possessions as the pick and roll ball handler.  In these situations, Lawson scores 0.89 points per play, 23rd best in the league.  The Warriors had the league’s 13th best defense by points per play, but struggled to defend the pick and roll ball handler, allowing 0.83 points per play, 25th in the league.

The Warriors generally ice pick and rolls, especially when Bogut is involved.  This is a good strategy for slowing the ball handler while giving the big man time to recover to the roll man, but forces the big man to attempt to contain the ball handler before the guard can recover, and against the lightning-quick Ty Lawson, the Warriors have struggled.

Lawson Bogut ice 1

The Nuggets are often criticized for lacking a complex offense.  Their possessions often devolve into a simple high pick and roll with little organized off ball movement. But in the last two games against the Warriors, at least when Ty Lawson plays, this has been effective.  In games 2 and 3, the Nuggets have scored 124 and 128 points per 100 possessions with Lawson in the game.  The play shown above demonstrates many of the options the Nuggets have available out of the high pick and roll.

Jarrett Jack is supposed to prevent Lawson from using Kenneth Faried’s screen, but is too far from Faried, who simply moves to the other side of Jack.  In typical “ice” fashion, Bogut sags off the screen, hoping to prevent Lawson from getting to the basket, but because the screen was set so high, Bogut is forced to extend all the way to the elbow, far enough that Lawson has space to get by him.  With Jack hung up on the screen, there is several feet of space between Lawson and any Warriors defenders, leaving Lawson wide open for a mid-range jump shot.  Lawson shot 40.3 percent from mid-range this season, but since the all-star break, has made an incredible 52.4 percent of his mid range attempts, per to nba.com.

Lawson chooses to drive at the retreating Bogut, forcing Harrison Barnes to decide between cutting off the drive and staying on Wilson Chandler, a 41.3 percent three-point shooter.  Barnes hesitates for a moment, ample time for Lawson to burn Bogut and get the rim with only Stephen Curry to defend him.

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This is Ty Lawson’s shot chart for the first three games.  Lawson has attempted 24 shots at the rim, and only 7 from mid-range.  Though many of his at the rim shots come from transition opportunities, the Warriors have done a poor job forcing Lawson into taking mid-range jump shots.  Though Lawson has shot a high percentage on these attempts recently, allowing him to get all the way to the basket draws help defenders, and compromises the Warriors far more than a hopefully semi-contested jump shot would.

Andrew Bogut is not yet mobile enough to contain Lawson beyond the free throw line, forcing the Warriors to find another method of defending one of the fastest players in the league.  In the last few months of the regular season, and sporadically throughout the series with the Nuggets, the Warriors have defended point guards with the 6’-7” Klay Thompson.  Like nearly every player in the league, Thompson is not quick enough to defend Lawson without help, but his size does allow him to be more effective in preventing Lawson from using screens and contesting pull up jump shots while remaining in position to deny the drive.

Klay Thompson may be able to slow Lawson, but defending any good scorer is a team effort.  As Zach Lowe detailed for Grantland, NBA defenses are almost always under-help.

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With Wilson Chandler out of the picture just crossing half court, Harrison Barnes should position himself at the free throw line and at least a step closer to Lawson, directly in his driving lane.  Also, Andrew Bogut should step off Javale McGee and into the center of the line. Though he my fear another embarrassment at the hands of McGee, discouraging Lawson from penetrating should be the priority. In both this play and the play previously shown, Harrison Barnes should be much more aggressive with his help defense.  Helping “one pass away” is a generally flawed practice, but intelligent positioning that allows a defender to guard his man and affect the ball handler will be necessary in the Warriors efforts to defend Ty Lawson.

Grading Warriors Key Players in Game Two Victory

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors in Denver, Colorado.

(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

Here is a precursor to the types of grades you can expect after the Warriors’ game two victory in Denver.  For those of you unfamiliar with nba.com’s shot charts, green means good, and in this case, historically good.

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Prior to Tuesday’s game, Denver was 29-3 at home, including the game one victory over the Warriors.  Without David Lee, the Warriors would need an incredible performance to even the series.   The Warriors responded by shooting 64.6 percent from the field with a 73.4 percent adjusted field goal percentage.  Bitter graduates can blame grade inflation all they want, the Warriors earned these marks.

Stephen Curry:          A-

Though he scared Warriors fans, and likely all basketball fans, with an ankle injury in the third quarter, Curry’s creation was key to the Warriors’ victory.  Following a 1 for 6 start, Curry made 12 of his final 17 shot attempts.  The Nuggets seemed less aggressive in trapping curry out of pick and rolls, and Curry took advantage of the extra space.  Kenneth Faried returned from an ankle injury, and clearly had not recovered entirely.  He appeared far less laterally mobile than usual, and Curry took advantage of Fareid out of pick and rolls after struggling to do the same to Javale McGee, who played only 14 minutes, in the first game of the series.  Curry consistently made excellent decisions, recording 13 assists and only 1 turnover.  He scored 30 points on 23 shot attempts at a 65.2 percent true-shooting percentage, and only missed the A, and likely A+, because he struggled to keep Ty Lawson out of the lane, allowing Denver to keep the game close enough to stress the most paranoid Warriors fans until the final couple minutes.

Klay Thompson:  A+

Thompson scored 21 points on 95.5 percent true shooting.  If that’s not impressive enough, much of it was done while guarded by Andre Iguodala.  Klay made 5 of 6 three point attempts, many surprisingly open as Denver scrambled to defend Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack in the pick and roll.

Jarrett Jack:     A

Replacing David Lee in the starting line-up, Jarrett Jack played 43 minutes, in which he scored efficiently and created for others.  Jack made 10 of his 15 field goal attempts, and consistently penetrated the Denver defense, opening opportunities for Thompson, Curry, and Harrison Barnes, and provided consistent offense pressure to compliment Curry and Thompson’s long-range barrage.

Harrison Barnes:       A+

In one of his most impressive games of the year, Harrison Barnes scored a career high 24 points on 9 of 14 shooting, and displayed the dynamic skills he sporadically flashed through the season.  “Be aggressive” is a sort of cure-all ointment in the NBA.  From inspired player speeches to facetious Gregg Popovich mid-game interviews, “be aggressive” is often repeated as the solution to any difficult, and while many players’ and teams’ issues are unrelated to their aggression, or lack thereof, in the case of Harrison Barnes, being aggressive may be the key.

In his first start at nominal power forward, Barnes repeatedly attacked the basket, took advantage of mismatches, and, key for a player often left open by helping Nuggets defenders, made open shots.  David Lee will play the vast majority of power forward minutes next season, but Barnes success, albeit against the small-forward sized Wilson Chandler, bodes well for future use of small ball lineups.

Andrew Bogut:          B-

Bogut played well defensively, and without Koufos or McGee consistently running the pick and roll, the Nuggets did little to expose his mobility issues.  Bogut was in foul trouble throughout the game, and only played 22 minutes, limiting his total impact, but the defensive performance was a positive sign for the Warriors inconsistent defense.

Bench:                        B+

Carl Landry and Draymond Green each played 18 minutes, and Festus Ezeli added 16.  The bench played effectively in its limited role, but Mark Jackson generally rode the success of the starting lineup.   Though the Nuggets appeared invincible on their home court, the biggest upset of the day may have been Draymond Green, a 20.9 percent shooter from beyond the arc, making semi-important three pointer.

Can The Warriors Survive Without David Lee?

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(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

David Lee tore his right hip flexor in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s game versus the Denver Nuggets, and will be out the rest of the playoffs. With Lee expected to be ready for next year’s training camp, the rest of the Warriors will determine how many games he will miss.

Though often criticized, Lee has been vital to the Warriors success this season.  Lee is a member of each of the Warriors nine most-played lineups, only one of which has a negative net rating, according to nba.com, and is second on the Warriors in usage percentage among players playing more than five minutes per game, after Stephen Curry.

Curry is considered to be the offensive, “star” of the Warriors, but the team often equally relied on Lee’s passing to initiate the offense, and his scoring to finish it.  One of the most common features of the Warriors offense is the Curry-Lee pick and roll.  The Warriors, knowing that teams will often trap Curry, often run the pick and roll just to get Lee the ball in space, generally at the elbow opposite of where he set the screen.

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Lee shoots a respectable 42.9 percent from mid-range, and 58.2 percent from less than eight feet, enough to force the defense to rotate to deny him the shot or a lane to the basket.  As the defense rotates, Lee, an excellent passer, is consistently able to find his teammates for open opportunities.  According to mysynergysports.com, the Warriors end 16.6 percent of their offensive possessions with a spot-up, and 7.9 percent with a cut.  These opportunities are often generated by Lee’s excellent passing out of the pick and roll.  The Warriors score 1.03 points per play out of spot-ups, good for third in the league, and 1.27 off cuts, the second best production.  The Warriors have excellent shooters, but David Lee’s ability to draw the defense and set up his teammates is equally responsible for the Warriors success in these situations.

So, can the Warriors replace David Lee’s production?  In two of the three games David Lee missed this season, Carl Landry replaced him in the starting lineup. Landry is capable of a reasonable Lee impersonation.  He shoots 43.6 percent from midrange, often off the pick and roll, typically with Jarrett Jack, and could likely replicate Lee’s rebounding, as his total rebounding percentage is only 2.6 percent lower than Lee’s.

However, Landry and Andrew Bogut have yet to appear on the court together this season, and starting Landry would leave the Warriors without a capable scoring big man off the bench.  Also, though Landry scores well out of the pick and roll at 0.98 points per play, according to mysynergysports.com, he cannot replicate Lee’s passing, leaving the Warriors to run a less imposing version of their normal offense.  Like Lee, Landry would struggle to defend Nuggets forward Wilson Chandler, but may be able to score on Chandler in the post.

Though Mark Jackson has been hesitant to go small all season, with Bogut playing well, the Warriors could start Jarrett Jack, and start Harrison Barnes at power forward.   According to 82games.com, Barnes has only played about 1 percent of the Warriors’ minutes at power forward, and due to Bogut’s inconsistent health and Jackson’s apparent disdain for small ball, the Curry-Jack-Thompson-Barnes-Bogut lineup did not record a single possession all season. However, shortly after Lee’s injury Saturday, the Warriors played that exact lineup, though only for three possessions.

The small ball lineup presents an opportunity for the Warriors to adopt a Houston Rockets spread pick and roll style offense, with Bogut setting screens while three off ball perimeter players are ready to shoot or attack a close-out.  Barnes is capable of guarding Wilson Chandler, though a healthy Kenneth Faried would pose some problems on the defensive glass, but most importantly, playing Barnes at the four could help free up Stephen Curry.

In game one, the Nuggets did an excellent job denying Curry any decent shot opportunities.  They trapped off pick and rolls, hedged off ball screens, and refused to allow Curry to consistently score.  The Nuggets would still trap off Bogut, but without a second Warrior big man in the lane to help off of, Denver would be forced to recover sooner or help on Bogut off of wing capable of hitting the three or attacking the lane, where there would likely only be one Nugget able to help.

The Warriors are often at their best when Harrison Barnes is aggressive offensively.  Without Lee’s defender to clog the paint, Barnes will have an easier time attacking, and finishing at the rim.

Though overcoming Lee’s absence will likely require some incredible performances from Stephen Curry, the injury does present opportunities for the Warriors to experiment with lineups for future seasons.

Andre MIller, Nuggets Down Warriors in Denver

NBA: Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors

(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

Despite an impressive defensive effort, the Warriors were unable to overcome a playoff-career high 28 points from Andre Miller.  Known for his relative lack of athleticism, the crafty veteran was able to take advantage of Harrison Barnes inexperience in the post and Jarrett Jack’s lesser size, as well as the Warriors’ zone, which, contrary to the expected purpose of a zone, often left the middle unprotected.  In what could be a series altering incident, David Lee injured his right leg on a drive in fourth quarter.  The Warriors are reporting the injury as a “hip flexor strain,” and an MRI is scheduled for Sunday, according to CBS Sports.

Key Stretch

This game will be remembered for Andre Miller’s game winning layup, but the Warriors may have lost themselves the game at the end of the third quarter. With 2:25 left in the third quarter, following a Corey Brewer jump shot, a David Lee screen freed Jarrett Jack from Corey Brewer.  Jack beat the hedge, got into the lane, and elected to take his patented push floater over Javale McGee, rather than pass to the open Landry, whom McGee was helping off.  Jack, who finished the game 3 of 12, missed the floater, and on the following possession, missed a semi-contested deep three pointer after a poorly executed Warrior possession. Andre Miller then missed a baseline fade-away jumper off a post up of Klay Thompson.  The Warriors scored to pull within two at 64-66.  Down two and only 50 seconds from the fourth quarter, the Warriors appeared to be in good position.  A phrase common among NBA pundits is that, “Good teams finish quarters well,” and in this instance, the Nuggets did just that.  Andre Miler set up Corey Brewer for an open jumper, which Brewer made, and left the Nuggets time for a second possession before the end of the quarter.  Landry missed a pick and pop jumper, and Miller again found Brewer for a jumper, this time from an extra point warranting inch further back, and the Nuggets expanded their two point lead to seven heading into the fourth quarter.

Why The Warriors Lost

Andre Miller:  Miller, who averages 9.6 points per game for the season, was unexpectedly unstoppable to close the game.  The Warriors used an array of defenders, ranging from the athletic Harrison Barnes, the quicker Jarrett Jack, and, on the final possession, Draymond Green, but Miller scored regardless. Be it on a jerky up and under or an off-balance jumper, Miller was consistently able to prevent the Warriors from taking a commanding lead, following a Stephen Curry game-tying three, ended the game.

David Lee InjuryLee, a staple of the Warriors’ end of game unit, was forced to the locker room with the previously mentioned injury.  Though Lee struggled throughout the game, he was missed as the high-post hub of the Warriors’ offense, which struggled over the course of the quarter.

Stephen Curry’s Shooting:  Credit the Nuggets for giving consistently giving Curry as little space as possible.  Though he did find a few open looks throughout the game, Curry was generally picked up by a defender, typically Ty Lawson, Andre Iguodala, or Corey Brewer, and harassed from the moment he came within five feet of the three point arc through the entire possession.  The Nuggets were clearly committed to hedging hard on every Curry pick and roll, and had the personal to do so effectively.  Curry started the game missing all of his first five shots, and never appeared to be in full offensive rhythm.  In a perhaps more impressive feat, the Nuggets defense did not allow Curry to attempt a field goal until the 5:58 mark of the first quarter.  Curry’s struggles prevented the Warriors from taking advantage of an impressive defensive performance that they may be lucky to repeat.