(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

Following David lee’s season-ending injury, there was debate over the Warriors options at power forward.  The Barnes at power forward lineup promoted for its offensive promise, was feared to leave the Warriors defenseless against Denver’s offensive rebounding.  Denver lead NBA with a 31.4 percent offensive rebounding percentage, boosted by the hyperactive Kenneth Faried, who had the league’s 6^th best offensive rebound percentage.

The return of Kenneth Faried from a severe ankle sprain was expected to cause significant matchup problems for the Warriors.  A healthy Faried is too strong for Harrison Barnes, and too quick for Carl Landry.  However, the Warriors held Faried to only 4 points and 4 rebounds in 21 minutes.

Much of Faried’s decreased production may be attributed to his ankle injury.  Faried’s decreased lateral mobility was clear in his pick and roll coverage, and contributed to his inability to produce offensively or rebound effectively.

As this graphic from popcornmachine.net shows, the Warriors never allowed Faried to take advantage of Harrison Barnes.  Faried was never on the floor without one of Carl Landry, Draymond Green, Festus Ezeli, or Andrew Bogut matched up against him.  Because of Faried’s decreased mobility, he was restricted against defenders of equal strength.

Also, at the end of the second and third quarters, and the beginning of the fourth, Faried played without Kosta Koufos or Javale McGee in the lineup.  According to nbawowy.com, in 1142 possessions played with neither McGee nor Koufos on the court, Faried posted an offensive rebounding rate of 13.4 percent, and a true-shooting percentage of 61.6 percent, 4.3 percent higher than his season average.  When playing without Denver’s main centers, Faried typically excels offensively, but the Warriors were able to limit his opportunities and production.  On a typical offensive possession, Faried will run the baseline, set high screens, and actively cut through the paint, but in game two, he was often restricted to waiting in the low block, or setting high screens and ineffectively rolling.  Faried was not as aggressive as expected, but the Warriors did actively attempt to limit his space offensively.  When Andre Iguodala or Corey Brewer, 31.7 and 29.6 percent shooters from behind the arc respectively, were on the same side as Faried on the roll, Iguodala and Brewer’s defenders would consistently crash down to pressure Faried’s dive to the rim, allowing his man to recover.  Faried played several minutes with Anthony Randolph, to whom the Warriors gave little respect defensively.  Warriors defenders often helped off Randolph to pressure Faried in the pick and roll.  The may have over-committed to this strategy, as Randolph, a former Warrior, had 14 points on 5 of 6 shooting.

Kenneth Faried’s ability to pressure the Warriors’ defense and gain extra possessions for the Nuggets will be influential throughout the series.  As the Warriors showed in game two, they are fully capable of stopping a limited Faried. How they react if Faried regains his mobility as the series progresses remains a vital question in determining this suddenly competitive first round series.

(Written for Fansided.com’s Blue Man Hoop)

Following their hot start and tumultuous finish, the Golden State Warriors have clinched their 2^nd postseason berth in 17 years.  Here are three X-factors that will affect the Warriors playoff performance, and perhaps allow them to replicate the success of their last appearance.

Klay Thompson’s Shooting:  While many teams focus on getting to the rim, scoring from the post, and attacking out of the pick and roll, the Warriors disproportionally rely on the jump shot as a source of offense.  Fortunately for the Warriors, many of these shots are taken by Steph Curry, a transcendent jump shooter already in contention for greatest shooter in NBA history.  Curry’s backcourt partner, however, has not been as consistently incredible.  While Thompson is capable of shooting streaks comparable to any great shooter, he has bricked his way through many a rough outing.  When Thompson is shooting well, he adds a key dynamic to the Warriors offense.  In wins this season Thompson has shot at a 57.5% true shooting percentage (accounts for free throws, and added value of threes).  In losses, Thompson shoots a mere 47.0% (per nba.com).  Interestingly, many of Klay’s struggles and successes appear to be independent of defensive coverage.  There are games where the corner three is automatic, and others where it is consistently off, and though some teams will over play him off screens, many if Klay’s midrange jumpers are just a matter of balance and timing, both of which are inconsistent night to night.  For the Warriors to be a threat in the playoffs they will likely require the spacing and scoring Klay Thompson is capable of providing.

Andrew Bogut’s Health:  Heading into the season, Andrew Bogut’s health was one of the most important variables for the Warrior’s success.  Pre-season predictions often were dependent on, “assuming Bogut comes back healthy,” disclaimers that only added to Warriors fans Steph Curry-based fears.  The Warriors were surprisingly successful without Bogut to begin the season, and often struggled after he returned.  Though the Warriors were only 18-13 with Bogut in the lineup, for several stretches Bogut’s defensive ability allowed the Warriors to hint at the team’s full potential.  Over 144.2 minutes, the Curry-Jack-Thompson-Lee-Bogut lineup scored 119 points per 100 possessions while allowing only 104 (82games.com).  While Bogut has looked stiff in some games, there have been others in which he is sufficiently mobile to provide consistent help defense.  Bogut suffered a bone bruise in his ankle during last weeks’ game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and though he missed the game against the Lakers, he will likely be ready for the playoffs.  A spry, aggressive, relatively healthy Bogut would add new offensive and defensive dimensions to the Warriors, while the stiff, immobile, unhealthy Bogut may hinder the Warriors efforts.  Just as it was before the season, Andrew Bogut’s health will be vital to the Warriors’ success.

Harrison Barnes’ Minutes:   This season, Mark Jackson has held Harrison Barnes on a short leash.  Barnes’ offensive role has been limited, and Jackson often opts to use the Curry-Jack-Thompson perimeter group at the end of games rather than have the rookie test his crunch-time prowess.  Barnes has played 25 minutes per game, and often played fewer against better competition.   Though Barnes may have a Jeff Green-esque tendency to disappear throughout games, at his best he provides aggressive attacks to the rim and athletic perimeter defense.  Jackson has kept Barnes’ future in mind throughout the regular season, and will have to reveal if he believes that Barnes can help in the present.

While the Miami Heat were busy reaffirming their position as sole and rightful kings of the Eastern Conference, the growing cast of aspiring Western Conference contenders continued its battle for supremacy.  The Denver Nuggets (17-3 since the all-star break 8.9 net rating) and Memphis Grizzlies (16-6 5.2 net rating) established themselves as threats to the West’s upper echelon, a level of public regard from which the Los Angeles Clippers have fallen since the beginning of the season.   The Clippers responded to a slow start to the season with a winning streak at which only the Heat can scoff.  Spanning the month of December, the Clippers won 17 games in a row, and outscored opponents by 16.1 points per 100 possessions.  This streak, spurred by Chris Paul and the frantic “bench mob,” established the Clippers as contenders, a height from which they have slowly fallen.  Since the streak ended, the Clippers are outscoring their opponents by only 2.6 points per 100 possessions (nba.com), which would rank 10^th in the league over the full season, and have won 24 of 43 games.  In a recent ESPN NBA 5 on 5, 3 of the 5 writers polled classified the Clippers as “pretenders,” while a fourth was, “on the fence.”  Though this is not necessarily representative of public opinion (and I wouldn’t put much value in Chris Palmer’s analysis), the perception of the Clippers as contenders has clearly faded.

The Clippers feature Chris Paul, the best point guard in basketball, who is widely considered the 3^rd best player in the league (tied for second in win shares per 48 minutes per basketball reference), Blake Griffin, one of the better power forwards (4^th in ws/48 among forwards and centers), and a generally strong bench unit including dynamic scorer and 6^th man of the year candidate Jamal Crawford, Matt Barnes, a no longer fat Lamar Odom, and Eric Bledsoe.  So what prevents the Clippers from playing at a higher level?  Coaching, or at least offensive and defensive strategy and execution, appear to play a large part in the Clippers shortcomings.

Though critics often focus on the Clippers drought-prone offense, the underachieving defense costs them just as often.  The Clippers have allowed 101 points per 100 possessions on the season, and have surrendered 103.8 since the end of their streak.  Though the Clippers suffer defensively from a lack of big man defenders off the bench, many of their problems may be schematic.  Hickory High’s expected points per shot metric calculates the expected points per shot allowed by a team by finding the league points per shot average from various zones on the floor and comparing the percentage of opponent attempts from each zone allowed by a team.  Defenses, at least the good ones, are designed to allow as few attempts from 3, especially in the corners, and from the restricted areas as possible.  These two areas have the highest Expected Points per Shot of any zone, and the leagues best defenses, focused on denying opportunities from theses areas (the league-best Pacers allow the fewest shots in the restricted area and 2^nd fewest corner 3s), consistently have the lowest Expected Points per Shot Allowed.  Through January 7^th, the Clippers did a poor job denying opponents attempts from high efficiency areas, allowing a 20^th ranked 1.05 XPPS.  Though personnel limits defensive performance, the ability of a defense to force an offense into taking low efficiency shots is often dictated by both approach and execution.  Hickory-High’s XPPPS data was last updated January 7^th, but the focus is on the Clipper’s defensive strategy, and as their defensive rating has actually worsened since that date, the data is useful in reflecting the presence of flaws in the Clippers approach.  Per mysynergysports.com, the Clippers allow 1 point per play (different from points per possession in that per possession includes offensive rebounds as a single scoring opportunity, meaning that an missed shot followed by a put back dunk would produce 2 points per possession and 1 per play) to opposing spot up attempts, ranking 20^th in the league.  Open spot opportunities are typically the result of poor rotations, which are often a product of a compromising strategy.

To begin this play, Eric Bledsoe takes a bad angle trying to go over a high screen for DJ Augustine and is trapped behind the play, allowing Augustine to get into the lane.

Ryan Hollins steps up to defend Augustine, who kicks it out to Ian Mahinmi a couple feet inside the free throw line.  Because Bledsoe and Hollins switched in the pick and roll coverage, Hollins is left guarding DJ Augustine, who leaks to the corner, while Matt Barnes guards Paul George on the left wing.  Bledsoe then makes a mistake indicative of a poorly coached team.  He rushes to close out on the open Mahinmi, who shoots only 33.6% on mid range jumpers (nba.com).  Even if Mahinmi were a much better shooter, Bledsoe should likely have allowed the mid-range jumper.  Had Bledsoe instead trailed his original man, Augustine, through the play, Hollins would be free to close out on Mahinmi.  Instead, Mahinmi penetrates off Bledsoe’s overzealous close out.  Leaving Hollins to protect the paint and guard Augustine in the corner.

Hollins stays in the paint to contest Mahinmi’s drive, and is unable to recover to contest Augustine’s 3.  However, even at this point Augustine should not have been open.  Compounding Bledsoe’s blown pick and roll coverage, Matt Barnes, the lone left side perimeter defender, now responsible for both George and Augustine, decided to help down on Mahinimi’s drive.  Barnes should have allowed the helping Hollins and Bledsoe to contest the offensively challenged Mahinmi’s drive and stayed in position to contest the corner three, allowing Bledsoe to recover to George above the break if Augustine decided to pass.  Instead, the Clippers allow a wide-open corner three, the best shot in basketball.

The Clippers have been plagued by ill-advised defensive rotations all season, and allow the 13^th most 3-point attempts per game (per hoopdata hooray for non-pace adjusted stats! I couldn’t find the per possession number ranking), 86.3% of which are assisted, the 5^th highest rate in the league, confirming the inability to deny opponents open spot-up 3s.  The efficient, well-coached offenses the Clippers will face in the playoffs will be prepared to take advantage of the Clippers rotation issues.  The Clippers also allow 0.84 points per play against isolation attempts, per mysynergysports.com.  Though isolation is typically perceived as a one on one battle, the presence of back line defenders is key against NBA caliber offensive players.  The Clippers rank 22^nd overall in defending isolation, displaying how their big men are often out of position to contest or deny isolation attempts.  Though he has made significant improvements as a defender this year, Blake Griffin has a habit of staying tight to his man defensively, often turning his head from the play, and not stepping off and in into the key to deny penetration.

Offensively, the Clippers issues may be overrated.  Per basketball-reference, the Clippers score 109.9 points per 100 possessions, the 5^th highest rate in the league, and, per mysynergysports.com, rank 3rd in both pick and roll ball handler and roll man points per play and 7^th in spot up, which account for a combined 35.7% of their offense.  As transition opportunities decline in the playoffs, the Clippers will likely focus their half court execution on the very efficient Chris Paul – Blake Griffin pick and roll.  The Clippers offense is prone to notable dry spells, during which they often rely on Jamal Crawford isolations to create scoring.  The glaring lack of movement in many Clipper sets does not reflect well on coach Del Negro, however the Clippers are generally able to score efficiently regardless.  The Clippers offense excels when Griffin and Paul share the court, scoring 110.7 points per 100 possessions (nba.com).   This season Chris Paul has only played 33.3 minutes per game, but in the playoffs will likely average over 40.  As Griffin and Paul play more, the Clippers offense will likely experience fewer offensive dry-spells.  Though they have slipped in the public’s eye, the Clippers players still believe that they are championship contenders, and if they can tighten some defensive issues, they may prove themselves to be correct.

Last summer, perpetual underachiever Jeff Green signed an immediately criticized 4 year 36 million dollar deal with the Boston Celtics.  Green, a forward who couldn’t rebound and a scorer who couldn’t score had struggled to fulfill the potential the Celtics traded Kendrick Perkins for a year prior.  Before Rondo’s injury, the Celtics were outscored by 2.6 points per 100 possessions with Green on the court.  Green, splitting time at backup small forward and power forward, only rebounded 8.2% of available rebounds, a horrendous rate for either position, and shot a below average 50.8 true shooting percentage (accounts for free throws and increased value of 3’s).  Green, the 5^th pick in the 2007 draft, appeared mired in yet another underwhelming season.  However, since Rondo’s injury, Green has quickly shifted from an underwhelming backup to one of the best scorers in the league.  In 32 games since January 12^th, Green has a 59.9 % true shooting percentage, and a net rating of 4.3 pp100p.  Green, often criticized for not being aggressive, has done a much better job attacking the rim, and is finishing and drawing fouls at a much higher rate when he gets there.  Prior to Rondo’s injury, Green made 54.1% of his shots attempted less than five feet from the basket.  After the injury, he has finished 66.2% of those attempts.   Green has been noticeably more controlled in his forays to the rim in recent months, knowing when to pass to cutters and kick to the perimeter and when to attack out of position defenders. Highlighted by his 44 point eruption in a dramatic loss to the Miami Heat, Jeff Green has been a very efficient scorer the Celtics since Rondo’s injury, and though 9 million dollars per year still seems excessive, especially given that the Celtics appeared not to be bidding against anyone, Green is developing from a contractual catastrophe to minor inconvenience.

Cavaliers’ Future:  The Cleveland Cavaliers picked Syracuse guard Dion Waiters 4^th overall in this year’s draft, a year after picking Canadian power forward Tristan Thompson in the same slot.  The Cavaliers clearly struck gold with top pick Kyrie Irving, however were criticized for the Thompson and Waiters picks.  His first season in the league, Thompson struggled to finish over NBA level defenders, had little skill away from the basket, and, though he was a very good rebounder, struggled defensively.  A year later, when many expected them to select Harrison Barnes, the Cavaliers drafted Dion Waiters, an inefficient shooting guard who came off the bench in college but had athletic potential.  Through the first few months of the season, Thompson appeared improved, but not sufficiently to justify his draft spot.  Meanwhile, Waiters was struggling, basically manifesting every criticism of his game coming out of college.  He was taking far too many midrange jumpers, many contested, and had a generally poor shot selection.  In 8 games in December, Waiters shot an incredibly poor 38.8% true shooting percentage.  However, since the early season struggles, both Waiters and Thompson have given Cleveland reason for renewed hope.  After Anderson Varajao’s season ending injury, Thompson has exploded.  His rebounding percentage rose from above average in the early season into the mid-20’s post-Varajao injury, and, with increased post up and pick and roll opportunities, he has increased his scoring production and efficiency.  Once criticized as a potential bust, Thompson has pushed himself into contention for 2^nd best player in the 2011 draft, and the Cavaliers already have the 1^st.  Waiters, meanwhile, has seemingly adapted to the NBA.  As this fearthesword.com article outlines, Waiters has continued to get to the rim with ease, but is now finishing once he gets there.  Though he has still struggled to convert on three’s Waiters may slowly be becoming the dynamic source of scoring and ball-handling relief for Kyrie Irving that the Cavs envisioned.

Warriors’ Playoff Matchups:  Likely inspired by a couple impressive regular season wins by the Warriors over the Clippers, many are suggesting that the Warriors should hope to match up with Los Angeles in the first round.  The Clippers have faltered recently, often looking closer to average than elite.  However, it seems that a large part of what keeps the Clippers slightly below the level of the “elite” teams (though those who remember past the last two months would likely include the clippers) is the desire to limit Chris Paul and, oddly, Blake Griffin’s minutes during the regular season.  With both Griffin and Paul on the court, the Clippers outscore opponents by 8 points per 100 possessions (nba.com).  Though the Warriors guarded Blake Griffin decently in the regular season games, David Lee is not mobile enough to recover to Griffin after “downing” Paul-Griffin pick and rolls, the staple of the Clippers offense, and Steph Curry is not strong enough to effectively deny Paul the screen.  The Warriors defense has fallen apart recently, and would likely collapse under the constant threat of the Clippers pick and roll and transition attacks.  As a Warriors fan, I would prefer they play the Denver Nuggets to any other likely first round opponent.  While the Nuggets are better than the Warriors, I believe the Warriors will at least be able to challenge the Nuggets if they can limit turnovers (which they probably can’t) and hope Andre Miller decides to blow a game or two.

Bynum Injury:  Before the season, the Philadelphia 76ers traded Andre Iguodala, Nikola Vucevic, Moe Harkless, and a future first round pick for Laker’s center Andrew Bynum as part of a 4-team trade.  Bynum had struggled with knee issues throughout his career, and was scheduled for surgery in the offseason.   Unfortunately, Bynum suffered several setbacks throughout his recovery, and recently it was reported that Bynum needed another surgery, meaning he would miss the entire year.  Bynum will not play for the Sixers this year, and may never, as he is an unrestricted free agent this offseason.  As it became clear Bynum would not play this season, many criticized the Sixers for the trade, and though in hindsight the trade may end up as regrettable, it was the right move.  Prior to the Bynum trade, the 76ers were a capped-out perennial 1^st, maybe 2^nd round exit whose only hope to advance farther in the playoffs was a drastic Evan Turner improvement (which did not come this season).  The Bynum trade gave the Sixers the 2011-2012 2^nd team all-NBA center that ranked 16^th in win shares per 48 minutes (greater than 20 mpg), and the potential for an elite inside out combo with Jrue Holiday that could vault the Sixers into a higher level of contention.  Though Turner has not improved much, trading Iguodala freed an offensive role for the young wing.  The Sixers real failure this past offseason came in amnestying Elton Brand, the underrated defensive anchor, and using the freed cap space to sign Nick Young, Kwame Brown, and Dorell Wright.

            On November 6, 2012, Barack Obama was reelected as President of the United States.  Obama returned to Washington under the slogan, “Forward,” a direction the local Wizards certainly did not appear to be moving.  Before the season, the Wizards, presumably adding veteran players in an attempt to reach the playoffs, dealt Rashard Lewis and a 2^nd round draft pick for Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor.  Despite this salary intensive attempt to make the playoffs, through January 11^th, the Wizards were a depressing 5-28 and, just to make the experience even more enjoyable for their fans, scored at a league-worst 93.1 points per 100 possessions (per nba.com).  Despite the record, the Wizard’s most disheartening situation was the state of their young backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal.  Prior to the season, Wall developed a stress fracture in his knee, and was scheduled to miss much of the beginning of the season.  Though Wall had flashed promise in his first two seasons in the league, popular opinion (expressed in this Yahoo! Ball Don’t Lie article http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/john-wall-returns-practice-impresses-011655092–nba.html) was that Wall needed to take a drastic step forward in the 2012-2013 season to establish himself as the franchise block the Wizards thought they had drafted.  Instead of coming into the new season showing off an improved jumper, or better ball control, Wall was not even able to practice, let alone play. While will was stuck off the court, Beal was struggling on it.  In 32 games played prior without John Wall, Beal shot 32.3 percent from 3, 38.9% on 2 point field goal attempts, and had a true shooting percentage of only 46.8% (per nbawowy.com).   Though he was promoted in college as an aggressive guard with an incredible shooting stroke, Beal struggled to get to the rim, attempting only 17.95 of his shots from 0-3 feet and 25.0% from 10-15 feet, and converted on a less than impressive 32.3% on the three point attempts that accounted for 34.1% of his field goal attempts, and though the Wizards struggled regardless of whether Beal was playing or not, they were outscored by 1.1 more points per 100 possessions with Beal on the court compared to off.  Beal, like Wall before him, had shown potential, but struggled to consistently convert the promise into production.

            In a January 12^th contests against the Atlanta Hawks, John Wall, once the lord and savior of the eternally damned Wizards (in this case original sin is drafting Jan Vesely) began his 3^rd season, ready to rise again.  And while the Wizards have not yet ascended to the heavenly height of above average, they have managed a promising level of decency since Wall’s return.  Spurred by an impressive defense and slightly improved but still bad offense, Washington has won 12 of its 20 games since Wall’s return, good for a .600 winning percentage that would place them 4^th in the Eastern Conference if sustained for a full season.  However, in this lost season it  is the improved performance by Wall and Beal that bring hope for a better future in Washington.  Though Wall, only shooting a 48.3% true shooting percentage, still has yet to approach his potential as scorer, he has developed an ability to create offensive opportunities for his teammates.  Wall has assisted on a career high 44.3% of his teammates field goals while he is on the court, up 7.4 percent from last year, and his team scores 4.3 points per 100 possessions more while he is on the court than off.  Though the Wizards 101.3 offensive rating with Wall on the court would place them at a mere 26^th in the league per basketball-reference.com, many of the lineups Wall is most featured in are much better offensively, including the oft-used starting lineup of Wall – Beal – Webster – Okafor –Nene which scores 105.5 points per 100 possessions and allows an impressively low 82.2.

            Wall’s emergence as an effective, though often frustrated, floor general has best reflected itself in Bradley Beal’s performance over the last 2 months.  Since Wall’s return, Bradley Beal’s true shooting percentage has jumped to 57.4, prompted by Beal’s incredible 3-point shooting efficiency.  Over the last 20 games, Beal has made 46.9% of his 3-point attempts, including 12 of 18 from the left corner 3, and 9 of 18 from the right.  John Wall’s ability to force defenses to help by beating primary defenders off isolation in the pick and role have opened up many opportunities for Beal, who has not failed to take advantage.  Though Beal never receives the ball on this possession, this play displays how Wall creates space and opportunity for Beal.

            As Wall drives right off the pick and roll, Jan Vesely’s man steps across the lane to contain the penetration, leaving Beal’s man forced to guard two people on the left side of the court.  Wall beats the hedging big man and misses the semi contested layup over the help defender.  As this happened, Beal’s man committed to Vesely at the rim, leaving Beal open in the left corner, from which he has been nearly automatic since Wall returned.  Though he did not do it on this possession, Wall has displayed the ability to consistently convert the pass to the corner 3, which would allow Beal to shoot, or attack the close out by the defender who began the possession guarding him.

            This synergy between the talents of the Wizard’s dynamic young guards has led to many wins over the last two months, and brings hope that, with a few even-slightly prudent decisions by Wizard’s management, these wins are just the beginning.

11:36  Klay Thompson opens the game with a nice drive off a curl screen, but is blocked by Roy Hibbert. Hibbert may be struggling offensively, but he is one of the best defensive centers in the league and will help seal off penetration by the Warriors, who’s guards are relatively inept at finishing around the rim.

10:50  The pacers initiate the offense in a two high post horns style look.  Hibbert sets a screen at for George Hill going left, then rolls through the lane for deep position on the right block.  As Paul George clears baseline to the left of the court, Hill passes to David West, who makes an entry pass to Hibbert for a post isolation.  Though he has good position, Hibbert gets little lift and has his shot blocked by Biedrins.

10:05:  Steph Curry hits a pull-up midrange jumper off a screen above the three point line by Biedrins.  Hibbert sags into the paint, as is typical of the Pacers’ defense, leaving Curry the ling two.  Curry will likely be able to get this shot throughout the game, and will need to have a good shooting night for the Dubs to win this game.

9:55:  Another Pacer possession, another post clear out for Roy Hibbert.  Again, he doesn’t get lift on the jump hook, and is blocked.  Hibbert has been incredibly inefficient this year, and it may benefit the Pacers more to leave Paul George on the wing, hoping his man will help down on HIbbert, allowing a kick out that leaves the Warriors defense off balance.

7:22  Steph Curry pushes the ball up the court and kicks it out to Harrison Barnes, then immediately runs back to the three point line for a rhythm jumper.  12-6 Warriors.  The Warriors often run staggered screens for Curry in semi-transition, and though that was just a normal drive and George Hill over-helped, the Warriors will want to get out in transition to combat the Pacers’ league leading defense.

6:55  Paul George hits a tough baseline fade-away 16-footer over Harrison Barnes, who displayed why he has such high defense potential, forcing George out of deeper position and not letting him penetrate baseline.

5:54  This time, George gets deeper position on the post-up, but immediately tries to force a pass into traffic for a cutting Lance Stephenson.  David Lee gathers the loose ball and pulls an uncoordinated version of the Blake Griffin, dribbling the ball up the court and drawing a foul on the layup.

4:42  Klay Thompson beats Paul George off the dribble and… KLAY THOMPSON BEAT PAUL GEORGE OFF THE DRIBBLE!!!  Unfortunately for Thompson’s assist numbers, David Lee blows the easy finish off the pass than goaltends the offensive rebound.

3:10  Andris Biedrins just blocked Hibbert with his stomach.  To say Hibbert stuggles offensively may be an understatement.

1:17  29-22 Indiana. The Warriors have struggled to score the last few possessions, while George Hill and transition offense have put the Pacers on a 9-0 run.

2^nd Quarter

9:38  Indiana still has yet to score in the quarter narrowing the score to 31-30 Pacers.  Without George Hill or Paul George to run the offense, the Pacers seem unable to generate good shots.  Dj Augustin has underperformed so far this year for the Pacers, who expected him to replace the current Maverick Darren Collison as backup point guard.

6:44 Back to back threes by Steph Curry and Klay Thompson put the Warriors up 4, but the Warriors follow up the momentum swing with consecutive turnovers.

2:23  Harrison Barnes does a good job attacking the close-out and draws a shooting foul.  He has looked more aggressive in this game than any over the past two weeks.

1:53  In a bout of self-pity, Steph Curry completely destroys George Hill’s ankles.

1:22  Steph Curry pushes the ball in transition and penetrates than clears back out and gets a down screen from David Lee for an open three, which he drains.  Though the Pacers have them locked up in the half court, the Warriors have taken advantage of transition opportunities.

1:12  Another transition bucket for Curry, this time a floater in the lane.  That’s 21 in the 1^st half for Steph.   After a Lee layup and Paul George missed three, the Warriors enter halftime down 1.

3^rd Quarter

10:45  Just as with the 1^st half, Klay Thomson starts the second on the Paul George.  He has done a good job denying George space as he comes off screens while forcing George into the help defense.

7:35  More good defense from Harrison Barnes forces Lance Stephenson into a step-back jumper, which he misses.  Barnes’s speed and strength make him one of the few players in the league able to guard a his man in space without forcing him into the help defense, and when the “help defense” consists of David Lee and Andris Biedrins, that is a very valuable skill.

5:53  Klay Thompson blows an easy fastbreak layup.  He really needs to work on his finishing skills to be able to take advantage of transition plays and defenders that overplay him on curl screens.

End of Third:  The Warriors ran a lineup of Festus Ezeli, Carl Landry, Draymond Green, Richard Jefferson, and Jarret Jack to close out the 3^rd.  Playing three offensively inept players, along with a struggling Carl Landry is probably not the best method to stay in a game against the Pacers.  Though Jarret Jack tried to carry the offense, the Pacers will carry a 12 point lead entering the 4^th

4^th Quarter

9:21   Some improved offensive play and an incredible three by Steph Curry bring the Warriors within 6.  Jarret Jack is taking advantage of his ability to get in the lane off the dribble, and in typical Pacer fashion, the defense is not helping off perimeter players, leaving Jack to draw fouls.  With 2 more fouls the warriors will be in the bonus the rest of the fourth.

7:30  The Klay Thompson layup extravaganza continues as Klay misses a semi-contested reverse.  The play did display Klay’s inane ability to navigate off-ball screens offensively.

6:10  Hibbert and David Lee go at it off ball and a fight breaks out.  Steph Curry ran at Roy Hibbert who through him down with an elbow.  No punches were thrown, but the Warriors, with the Rockets, Jazz, and Lakers breathing down their necks can not afford to have Curry suspended.

http://www.slamonline.com/online/media/slam-tv/2013/02/fight-erupts-during-pacers-warriors-game-roy-hibbert-ejected-video/

6:10  Hibbert is ejected, and Steph Curry, David Lee, David West and Klay Thompson all receive technicals.  If the fight hadn’t spread to the stands the reaction to the biggest brawl in the nba this year would likely have been less severe.

1:34  Pacers up 108-93.  Post brawl, they were able to take advantage of David Lee in the post and grabbed a few key rebounds, enough to close out the Warriors, who will regret letting the league’s 22^nd ranked offense score so easily.

54:  A garbage time post up by Harrison Barnes displays what has been his most promising offensive skill so far this year.

The Pacers benefited from Warriors turnovers throughout the game, and were able to score efficiently enough in the post and on spot up threes to beat the Warriors, who suffered from lineup spurred offensive dry spells, in Indiana.

Houston Rockets:  Trade Marcus Morris

Phoenix Suns:  Trade 2013 second round draft pick

In what appears to be an effort to free up playing time for the other young forwards on their roster, Houston gave up last years 14h overall pick, allowing Marcus to reunite with his brother, Markieff, in Phoenix, where they will likely compete, along with Michael Beasley, for playing time at both small forward and power forward.  The rockets likely envisioned Marcus as a stretch four, able to space the floor while still rebounding at a high rate.  This season, Marcus is shooting a decent 38.1% on 6.1 3 point attempts per 38 minutes, however, due to struggles from midrange (30% from 10-15 ft and 28.6% from 16ft to the 3 point line), Marcus’ True Shooting % is merely 52.9%.  With Donatas Motiejunas, Terrence Jones, Royce White, and recent addition Thomas Robinson all awaiting playing time at power forward, Houston had no real reason to retain the older Marcus Morris.  The Rockets likely accepted a 2^nd round draft pick from Phoenix rather than a 1^st from a better team because 2^nd round contracts are not guaranteed, allowing the Rockets to easily drop the draft pick if he does not produce. Though Phoenix already has Markieff, a similar player, there is no real detriment to taking a chance with Marcus Morris while only surrendering a 2^nd round draft pick.

Houston Rockets: Trade Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich and Toney Douglas

Sacramento Kings:  Trade Thomas Robinson, Francisco Garcia, and Tyler Honeycutt

Unfortunately for King’s fans, this trade is clearly motivated by the financially futile soon to be ex-owners of the Kings desire to cut costs.  Though the trade does not save significant (on an NBA salary scale) money over the course of the contracts, the Maloof’s plan to sell the team after this season, and this trade, especially the departure of Francisco Garcia, save the Kings over 4 million dollars in salary.  As an added bonus, the Houston Rockets reportedly sent Sacramento 1 million dollars to complete the trade.  Though Patrick Patterson started for Houston this year and is likely currently a better player than Robinson, Robinson’s combination of athleticism, offensive skill, and rebounding leave him with far more upside than Patterson.  Robinson was projected to be a devastating pick and roll man in the NBA, and though he has struggled as a roll man so far, scoring only 0.37 points per possession on 27.3% shooting, he has not been properly set up by the poorly operated Sacramento offense.  Also, as he has somewhat inexplicably received only limited playing time, Robinson’s terrible numbers in the pick and roll may be attributed to statistical variation, as he has only registered 19 plays as a roll man, per mysynergysports.com.  Robinson, one of 5 top-5 picks traded in his rookie year, clearly holds long term value for the Rockets, he may also benefit them as early as this season.  Robinson, a hyper-aggressive rebounder, has a 12.5% offensive rebound rate, which should directly help Houston, the 24^th ranked offensive rebounding team, while likely drawing defensive attention off Omer Asik, allowing the young center to attack the boards as well.

Orlando Magic:  Trade J.J. Redick, Gustavo Ayon, and Ish Smith

Milwaukee Bucks:  Trade Tobias Harris, Doron Lamb, and Beno Udrih

Milwaukee added the Magic’s sought after shooting guard J.J. Redick, making it clear that they have no desire to face the Heat in the first round of the playoffs.  The Bucks should benefit from Redick for the rest of the season, but may struggle to retain him after his contract expires at the end of the year, as Redick may be looking to sign with a contender.  From the Magic’s perspective, this is likely a better haul than the first round pick they were seeking from some of the other contenders for Redick’s services.  20 year old Tobias Harris is already an above average defender, and may develop a more efficient offensive game as his career progresses. While Beno Udrih is likely not part of the Magic’s long-term plans, his ability to distribute should benefit the Magic’s young wing players for the rest of the season.  The Magic added Tobias Harris and Doron Lamb to their collection of decent players on rookie contracts, furthering their rebuild after the departure of Dwight Howard.

Toronto Raptors:  Trade Hamed Haddadi and 2014 2^nd round pick

Phoenix Suns:  Trade Sebastian Telfair

The Toronto Raptors added Sebastian Telfair to reinforce John Lucas III and their bad-at-best point guard corps.  Telfair is generally regarded as a more traditional pass-first point guard than Lucas, however his 22.0 assist percentage is slightly lower than Lucas’ 23.8.  Though Telfair may compete for the backup point guard minutes, this trade is generally inconsequential as both players are below mediocre and have little bearing on the Raptors success.  The Phoenix Suns added Hamed Haddadi, who never played a game in Toronto, and received a future second rounder for their troubles.

Washingon Wizards:  Trade Jordan Crawford

Boston Celtics:  Trade Leandro Barbosa and Jason Collins

Leandro Barbosa recently tore his acl, leaving the Celtics short a guard, while the Wizards clearly had no interest in retaining Crawford long term.  Crawford has flashed potential as a scorer, rating in the top 10 in isolation points per possession per mysynergysports.com, but has an inefficient 51.2% true-shooting percentage. The Wizards may have been able to gain a decent asset for Crawford, but, as Barbosa and Collins will both play no significant roll, were clearly eager to rid themselves of the volatile shooter.  The Celtics will hope that their veteran core can instill some basketball rationality into the young shooting guard, and perhaps may look back on this trade as a steal.

Oklahoma City Thunder:  Trade Eric Maynor

Portland Trailblazers:  Trade rights to Georgios Printezis

After a strong start to the 2011 season, Eric Maynor tore his acl.  Maynor, once a prized future asset for Oklahoma City, lost much of his value upon his return this season.  He has struggled, only shooting an abysmal 41.0% true shooting percentage, and Oklahoma City has been outscored by 7.0 points per 100 possession with Maynor on the court.  With Reggie Jackson’s emergence as a decent backup point guard, Oklahoma City was able to deal Maynor for the trade exception used to acquire Ronnie Brewer.  Georgios Printezis will likely never play in the NBA, and was only included because the Blazers are required to give up something.  Though Maynor had little value to the Thunder, he may already be the best bench player on the Blazers.  As Maynor recovers from his injury, there is a decent chance he will progress from his promising pre-injury form.  When Damian Lillard exits the game, the Trailblazers are outscored by 8.6 points per 100 possesions, as current backup point guard Nolan Smith is generally unable to run the offense.   After Maynor’s contract expires, assuming he does not make a significant leap in his recovery this season, he will likely accept the 3.4 million qualifying offer in an attempt to prove he deserves a longer contract after the 2013-2014 season.

Oklahoma City Thunder: Trade 2014 2^nd round draft pick

New York Knicks:  Trade Ronnie Brewer

Though he recently fell out of the Knicks rotation, Ronnie Brewer is a decent acquisition for the Thunder.  The first real backup small forward for Kevin Durant will not play heavy minutes, but could be used to pressure offensive creators on the Thunder’s competitors such as Jamal Crawford, Ray Allen, and Manu Ginobli while Durant or Thabo Sefolosha rest.

Miami Heat:  Trade 2013 2^nd round draft pick and Dexter Pittman

Memphis Grizzlies: Trade rights to Ricky Sanchez

In exchange for lessening the Miami Heat’s luxury tax burden by absorbing Pittman’s contract, the Hawks were awarded a 2^nd round pick.  Like many of the foreign players affiliated with NBA times, Ricky Sanchez will likely never play  a game in the NBA.

Atlanta Hawks:  Trade Anthony Morrow

Dallas Mavericks:  Trade Dahntay Jones

Though he is an elite three point shooter, Anthony Morrow’s defensive flaws will likely limit his playing time in Dallas just as they did in Atlanta, Golden State, and New Jersey.  Jones is a defensive focused veteran who isn’t especially good at defense, and likely will play behind both Kyle Korver and John Jenkins in Atlanta.  Though he has yet to earn consistent minutes, there is a chance Morrow will prove valuable as a floor-spacer for Dallas, likely the only possible outcome that affects either team.

Golden State Warriors:  Trade Charles Jenkins

Philadelphia 76ers:  Trade protected 2^nd round draft pick

Entering the trade deadline, the Warriors were only just over a million dollars above the luxury tax line.  Though they likely could have afforded the luxury tax fees, management wanted to avoid exposing themselves to the harsher repeater tax, which punishes teams that are over the luxury tax line for 3 years in a row.  By trading Charles Jenkins and Jeremy Tyler, the Warriors are able to dip under the tax line, allowing themselves to enter in later years when the team is more likely to make a deep playoff run.  As a Warriors fan, it is disappointing to see Charles Jenkins traded.  The 44^th pick out of Hofstra University almost singlehandedly foiled the Warriors attempt to shamelessly tank the 2011-2012 season, displaying his Stephen Curry-esque 46.4% midrange jumper while averaging 5.1 assists per game as a starter.  While the Warriors are hoping he doesn’t become the next Jeremy Lin, Jenkins should be an effective backup for Jrue Holiday in Philadelphia.

Golden State Warriors:  Trade Jeremy Tyler

Atlanta Hawks:  Trade future draft considerations.

Though he flashed potential as a mobile-shot blocking power forward, Jeremy Tyler never played a significant role for the Warriors.  The “draft considerations” the Warriors received for Tyler, another victim of the Warriors desire to get under the luxury tax, are likely a top 55 protected pick that the Warriors will never receive if Philadelphia does not finish with a top 5 record (which they without a doubt will not).