Category Archives: Miscellaneous

Are the Warriors Better off With Stephen Curry in an off-ball roll?

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(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

Early in Stephen Curry’s career, there was uncertainty as to whether he should play shooting guard or point guard.  Some thought Curry lacked the ball handling and court awareness to run the point.  Curry has put these concerns to rest, but there is still some public doubt as to which role maximizes Curry’s talents and the Warriors’ efficiency.

However, the Warriors still often use Curry in an off ball roll.  Throughout the games, the Warriors run series of screens designed to free Curry for a shot while another player, typically Jarrett Jack, runs the offense. These plays typically come in the form of a “floppy” set, in which Curry takes a series of staggered screens, generally looking for a corner three point attempt, while allowing structured reads and general improvisation through the play, or more simple pin-downs, which can result in a spot up look, but often lead into a pick and roll.

Along with their more basic sets, the Warriors have developed unique play designs, including the “Figure 8” set:

and the “Elevator Play”:

Curry is one of the league’s most effective off-ball shooters.  According to mysynergysports.com, Curry scores 1.35 points per play in spot-up situations, 5th in the league, and 1.07 points per play off screens, 20th in the league.

The Warriors use Curry off-ball throughout games, but much of his off ball play comes in the fourth quarter, when Jarrett Jack often runs the offense, with Curry spacing the floor.

Even off-ball, Curry demands the constant attention of the defense.  Curry’s defender often needs to chase him through screens and around the court, and the rest of the defense must hedge, trap, and deny screens to give Curry’s defender time to recover.  This often draws defensive help from the ball handler, allowing Jarrett Jack, Klay Thompson, and the other Warriors to attack with decreased defensive pressure.

However, the defensive attention drawn by Curry off ball does far less to benefit the Warriors than Curry’s on ball creation.  Curry scores effectively on-ball.  He is the league’s 27th best pick and roll ball handler and 32nd best isolation scorer in terms of points per play, and had an impressive assist percentage of 29.8 percent during the regular season.

Curry is able to create scoring opportunities for both himself and for teammates, and his teammates are much more efficient at converting the looks Curry generates for them than they are at attacking when Curry is playing an off-ball roll.  With David Lee no longer available to take advantage of defensive attention on Curry off-ball, Curry’s creation becomes even more necessary to the Warriors’ offense.

How Has Jarrett Jack’s Playoff Performance Affected His Free-Agent Value?

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San Antonio Spurs v Golden State Warriors

(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

On May 2nd, Marcus Thompson reported that Jarrett Jack did not intend to sign an extension with the Warriors, and would enter free agency.  In the article, Thompson wrote, “He is expected to be a fairly well sought after this offseason, especially with the postseason he’s having, as multiple teams are looking for a point guard.”

 

Jack may have impressed in his first few postseason games, but after recent difficulties, he has emerged as the scapegoat for most of the Warriors’ struggles.  Statistically, Jack is only slightly worse than he was during the regular season, but several blown key decisions, typical egregious shot-selection without expected results, and defensive lapses have turned many Warriors’ fans against the sixth man.

 

During the playoffs, Jack has recorded a Player Efficiency Rating of 15.9, the exact same as his regular season P.E.R.  Jack has scored 16.2 points per 36 minutes, 0.5 above his season production, and has actually increased his efficiency in doing so.  Jack shot a 54.2 percent true shooting percentage during the regular season, which has improved to 57.8 percent through nine playoff games.

 

Jack primarily functions as a scoring guard, and while he has maintained his scoring ability, his contribution in other areas have dramatically decreased.  Jack’s assist percentage has decreased from 29.9 percent to 22.8, and his turnover percentage has increased from 14.3.0 to 21.0.

 

The increased turnover rates and decreased assist rates are especially noticeable given Stephen Curry’s outstanding playoffs.  Jack is blamed for taking potential shots from Curry, Thompson, and the other Warriors, and often takes the fall for their struggles while appearing irrelevant to their successes.

 

So, how has Jarret Jack’s playoff performance affected his free agent value?

 

First off, I do not expect that general manager’s typically put a ton of stock into playoff performance over a limited number of games.  The nine games Jack has played in the playoffs represent 10.2 percent of Jack’s total games played this season.  While this is not an entirely insignificant portion, there is plenty of data available that should influence a GM’s decision more than these playoffs.  We often ridicule GM’s for judging a college player based on his performance in a few tournament games, and a judgment of Jack based solely on his playoff performance would be worthy of equal ridicule.

 

However, Jack’s play does reveal several of the major flaws in Jack’s game.  He is a scoring guard whose shot-selection would not generally lead to efficient scoring, struggles defensively, and whose poor court vision is often detrimental to his team.  He repeatedly makes bad decisions, highlighted by a hilariously awful turnover at the end of Game 3 versus San Antonio, and does not appear conscious of his struggles.

 

Jack’s ability to lead an effective offense has been brought into question by his struggles without Curry on the court, damaging his value to teams, such as the Utah Jazz, searching for a lead guard.  If Jack’s 16 game disaster spanning March was not enough to make teams aware of this, the playoffs exemplify why Jack’s current role may already be beyond his ability.

 

The Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Bobcats, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, New Orleans Hornets, Orlando Magic,Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, and Utah Jazz will all have sufficient cap space to offer Jack a contract paying more than his current 5 million dollar salary.

 

In free agency, Jack will likely be looking for a significant increase in both salary and role.  He may be willing to remain a backup point guard, perhaps still with the Warriors, but it is unlikely that he would do so without a pay raise and long-term contract.

 

Of the teams listed, four, Cleveland, Houston, Phoenix, and Portland, have point guards already under contract next season who would likely not surrender the starting role to Jack.  Though Jameer Nelson may not be a better player than Jack, it is highly unlikely that the rebuilding Orlando would want to add Jack’s contract, as they, along with Charlotte, have no real motive to attempt to improve next season. Several of the teams listed have free-agent point guards they could likely re-sign.  Atlanta will negotiate to keep Jeff Teague, Brandon Jennings has hinted at signing the qualifying offer with Milwaukee, and Jose Calderon may re-sign with Detroit, who could easily switch Brandon Knight back to point guard.  Sacramento may or may not be able to retain Tyreke Evans, who is generally used as a small forward or shooting guard, already has Isaiah Thomas, and has no need for another shoot first guard.  New Orleans is likely comfortable with Greivis Vasquez as a starter, though he is possibly worse than Jack defensively, and would likely rather keep their options open than pay Jack to continue their mediocrity.

 

Though the NBA landscape can obviously change very quickly, these conditions present only one destination for Jarrett Jack that would likely offer him the starting job; Utah.  The Jazz finished the regular season 43-39, and contended for a playoff spot until the final week of the season despite playing with a point guard rotation of an often-injured Mo Williams, Jamaal Tinsley, Earl Watson, and Alec Burks.  The cap space through which Jarrett Jack would potentially be signed will be created by the possible departure of their leading big men, Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap.  Utah may feel that the presence of a decent point guard will recreate the offensive production of Jefferson or Millsap, and that, with Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter waiting to replace the incumbent starters, the team will again be able to contend for a playoff spot.

 

Many of the teams with potential cap space have need of a backup point guard. Cleveland may make a push at the playoffs, and though Shaun Livingston was productive, could use a boost off the bench.  If Portland is unable or does not wish to re-sign Eric Maynor, point guard will join every other position on their list of bench needs, and many teams may desire the scoring punch provided by the aggressive Jack.

 

The playoffs have likely hurt Jack’s ability to be considered as a potential starter, or at least a starter for a successful team, but he may not have had many opportunities in this role to begin with.  Jack’s future as a well paid back up has not been dramatically damaged by his playoff performance, as teams are well aware of his flaws and will hope to limit those in a back up role.

 

I asked the ESPN’s Daily Dime Live what contract the dimers expected Jack to receive and from whom.  Cole Patty, a write for Portland Roundball Society responded that he expected Jack to receive a four year, 40 million-dollar offer from the Utah Jazz.  For a team that really should be rebuilding and developing young talent, this seems to me like an extreme commitment.  I would expect Jack to receive a contract closer to three years, 21-30 million-dollars, possibly with a second year team option, especially if offered from the Jazz.

 

I also believe that it is best for the future of the Warriors to not re-sign Jarrett Jack.  Jack prevented the Warriors from winning many winnable games, but also helped the Warriors to victory.  In the aggregate, Jack was a positive contributor this year, but he, especially his crunch-time role, may hinder the development of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Harrison Barnes.  Barnes lost many minutes to Jack and the Warriors’ three-guard lineups, Curry was forced off-ball, which, though it may help Curry short-term, is not conducive to the development of an elite point guard and scorer, and Thompson lost several shot attempts and ability to develop his ball-handling skills when Jack took over as point guard.

 

Part of my belief in Jack’s expendability may come from an irrational love for Kent Bazemore.  I do not think that the Warriors’ three-guard lineups featuring Jack are necessary to their long-term success, especially when Jack forces Curry off-ball.  In sporadic spurts, Kent Bazemore has shown himself to be a capable ball handler and impressive defender, and could likely play the back-up point guard for 10-15 minutes a game, with Brandon Rush replacing Jarrett Jack in the Warriors’ small ball units.

 

Jack has his high’s and low’s as a player, and though the playoffs have been a low, his value as a backup point-guard has not decreased significantly, and though it would likely be misguided to trust Jack as your starting point guard regardless of his playoff performance, the playoffs have displayed the flaws that prevent Jack from attaining this role.

Is Klay Thompson an Elite Defender?

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(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

 

Though the Charlotte Bobcats may beg to differ, the goal of NBA defense is to deny the opposing offense efficient shot opportunities, force turnovers, and limit offensive rebounds.  To complete this goal, defenses must prevent an offense from gaining situational advantages, and be able to recover when advantages are gained.

Effective defense requires the cooperation of a group of defenders, but a single elite defender can greatly decrease the burden on fellow defenders while pressuring an offense.  The ability to limit the opposing team’s offensive focus greatly impacts offensive production.  For example, according to basketball-reference.com, the Nuggets hold opponents to 104.0 points per 100 possessions with Andre Iguodala on the court and give up 108.4 with him off.  Obviously, defensive rating is dependent the combined performance of several players and differentials are impacted by the strength of bench defenders, but the impact of a single elite defender is clear.

 

Over the course of the season, especially the last few months, Klay Thompson has emerged as the Warriors’ go-to perimeter defender.  While the Warriors offense contributes a great deal of their success, the ability to play above-average defense has keyed their winning season and playoff run.  In the playoffs alone, Klay Thompson has defended several primary creators for a significant number of possessions, including Ty Lawson, Andre Iguodala, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli.

 

As these matchups show, Thompson has been used on a range of positions.  Versatility without production has no real value, but Thompson knows how to use his natural length to turn his potential into production.   In the Game 2 post-game press conference, Thompson detailed his plan against Tony Parker.  “I just tried to use my length as much as possible to bother him (Parker).  He’s one of the best scoring point guards in the paint, probably in the history of the NBA so I just tried to make him take contested, tough jumpers over me and I thought we all did a good job of that tonight.”  Thompson applies this basic strategy to most defensive assignments, knowing that he is tall and long enough to contest shots while sagging off to prevent a drive.

Here, Manu Ginobli is isolating on Thompson.  Thompson is a few feet off Ginobli, leaving him plenty of space to recover, but has his hand up, and clearly is capable of influencing the shot.

Ginobli makes his move, but is unable to get past Thompson, and is forced into a contested fade-away.

Compare Thompson’s defense to Jarret Jack’s in a similar situation.  Jack must position himself a few steps higher to deny a wide-open jump shot, and does not have room to recover once the speedy Ty Lawson makes his move.

 

Even against Andre Miller, an inept shooter from behind the arc, Jack is only a few steps off of Miller.

During the regular season, the Warriors allowed 106.2 points per 100 possessions with Thompson on the court, and 103.2 with Thompson off.  This would suggest that Thompson is a poor defender, however there are several factors that contribute to this discrepancy, the most glaring of which is David Lee’s poor defense.  During the regular season, Thompson played the majority of his minutes alongside David Lee, whose defense is widely consideredless than helpful.  In 325 minutes played in the playoffs with Thompson on the court, the Warriors have allowed only 102.3 points per 100 possessions and are giving up an absurd 122.7 points per 100 possessions in 69 minutes with Thompson off.  This 69 minute sample is clearly not indicative of the Warriors true defensive quality with Thompson off the court, and the recently-impressive Andrew Bogut is likely responsible for much of the defensive disparity between the two lineups, but the Warriors have clearly been significantly better defensively with Thompson in the line-up since the David Lee injury.  Not coincidentally, these last few weeks have seen a dramatic increase in public appreciation of Thompson’s defense, pushing him closer to being designated a top-notch defender.  82games.com offers a more player specific statistic.  This season, Thompson allowed a Player Efficiency Rating of 13.5 to opposing shooting-guards, and 14.1 to opposing small-forwards.  Thompson has spent a significant portion of time matched up with opposing point guards, yet no such match-ups have been recorded by 82games.com, suggesting a flaw in the data-collection or position-distinction method, but nevertheless, Thompson has held his counterparts at both positions to a PER below the regularized average of 15.0.

 

A popular cliché among basketball fans says that, “there are two-sides to the ball.”  Don’t ask me how two-distinct sides were found on a spherical object, but it is clear that basketball players must be productive on both offense and defense to fully benefit their team.  Klay Thompson has reached a level of defense that his ability to be a very good two-way player is hampered more by offensive than defensive issues, but despite Thompson’s vast defensive improvements, flaws remain.

 

Basketball is a competition between two teams, and as possession shifts between them, these teams play both offense and defense.  However, there are deeper defensive dualities, parts of which Thompson has not yet mastered, preventing him from impacting the game at the same level as elite defenders.

 

For all his success as an on-ball defender, Thompson often struggles with his man off-ball.   According to mysynergysports.com, Thompson is most effective defending isolation, pick and roll ball-handler, and pick and roll roll-man plays, allowing 0.79, 0.67, and 0.59 points per play, compared to an overall points per play surrendered of 0.82.  All three of these play types are require the offensive player to be either on ball, or directly engaged with the ball handler.  In situations like these, Thompson is effective.  He generally has good defensive positioning and footwork, and though quicker players can get by him, he rarely allows easy shots.  However, despite his work offensively off the ball, Thompson is prone to several recurring mistakes while guarding his man off-ball.

 

Thompson tends to lose awareness of the specific location of his man while still knowing the general area of his man.  Thompson will often watch the ball, even turning his back on his matchup.  Fully guarding your man through an entire possession is bad defense.  A defender should always be in position to help, but losing this awareness can lead to open spot up attempts.

 

Here, Thompson turns his back on Andre Iguodala (visible behind the big head in the lower left corner), who was standing approximately where the ref is currently located in the image.  As Wilson Chandler drives the lane, Iguodala drifts down to the corner.  Chandler makes the pass out to Iguodala, and Thompson begins running towards where he expects Iguodala to be.  Here we see Thompson changing course, losing valuable time to contest Iguodala’s jump shot.  According to mysynergysports.com, Thompson allowed 0.88 points per play to opponents in spot-up opportunities and 1.02 to opponent off-ball screen plays.

 

As was detailed before, a productive defense relies on a combination of effective on ball defense and help defense.  Though on-ball defense stands out, the most impactful defenders are generally those who can cover for others’ mistakes, and discourage opponents from driving to the rim or looking for a shot.  Because of this, big men are generally more valuable defensively than wings or guards.  Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Tyson Chandler, Dwight Howard, Andrew Bogut, and the other top-defensive big men are able to prevent opponents from taking on of the most efficient shots in basketball; the layup, and are the back line of defense that discourages opponents from looking for more efficient shot opportunities.

 

Along with good defensive big men, elite wing and guard defenders impact both their own man and the rest of the offense.  This is the highest of bars, but look how far off his man in the corner LeBron James is while playing help defense.

LeBron is ready to contest any attempt at the basket by Nate Robinson, but has the athleticism and awareness to recover to Bellielli in the corner if Robinson where to pass to him.

 

 

James is clearly impactful on-ball, but watch how often his aggressive off-ball positioning generates a highlight play.  In his article on SportVu and the ideal defense, Zach Lowe noted that the Miami heat defense most closely resembled the aggression of the “ghost” players created by Toronto’s staff to replicate the proper defensive rotations and positioning in a given situation by estimated value statistics.

 

Klay Thompson does not have the athleticism to impact opposing defenses to the degree that LeBron James and the best on and off ball defenders do, but as he gets more comfortable with NBA help schemes he may lift his defense to new levels.

 

While Klay Thompson has his defensive flaws, the fact that this question is being posed about the second year player suggest a bright defensive future.

Was Game 1 the Greatest Game Ever?

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(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

First off, any superlative designated without concrete proof will be subject to opinion, and determining the “best” is an often-impossible exercise that serves not to come to a definite conclusion, but to further collective appreciation for an incredible game.

As a Warriors fan, the last 15 or so minutes were as excruciating for me as I imagine they were exciting for an objective viewer, and while I have definitely experienced more “enjoyable” games, from an objective perspective, Game 1 was the pinnacle of basketball entertainment.

Historically, several factors have embedded games in our collective memories, and Game 1 had them all.

In the supposedly star-driven NBA, individual performances often stand above team results.  We do not remember Game 6 of the 1980 NBA finals as the time the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Philadelphia 76ers to clinch the series.  Instead, that game was made legendary by Magic Johnson’s brilliant performance in the absence of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.  Tales of Magic Johnson starting at center and playing every single position have persevered without regard to the team-level circumstances or results of the game, other than a basic knowledge of its importance and victor.  Similarly, Game 6 of last year’s eastern conference finals between the Celtics and Heat, is often described as “The Lebron Game,” or more accurately, “one of several Lebron games.”  Individual performances tend to capture attention to a greater degree than team-generated victories, and in Game 1, Stephen Curry provided plenty of individual achievement.

Curry was struggling through a mediocre night, but exploded in the third quarter, scoring 22 points as the Warriors seemingly put away the Spurs.  What makes Curry’s performance even more memorable from a historical perspective are the stylistic differences between Curry and the great scorers of NBA history.

Here is Curry’s third quarter shot chart.

Curry only attempted two shots at the rim, and did not earn a single free-throw.  Instead, Curry’s transcendent shooting provided the scoring punch.  As such a singular, unique skill, Curry’s shooting amplifies his dominance, and leads to many of the more awe-inspiring shots made by any NBA player.

Along with individual performances, odds-defying comebacks are common among the NBA classics.  Reggie Miller’s late game heroics against the New York Knicks inspired a 30-for-30 feature, and the name of a popular blog.  In the reverse of Monday’s result, a San Antonio regular season game was immortalized when Tracy McGrady scored 13 points in 35 seconds to complete an improbable comeback.

Though equal parts comeback and collapse, Game 1 provided all the drama of these incredible games.  The San Antonio Spurs became the first team ever to win a playoff game after trailing by 16 points in the final four minutes, moving teams in that unenviable situation to 1-and-393 all time.

If Stephen Curry’s 2013 playoff-high 44 points and a record-setting comeback were not enough, the game went through two overtimes and came down to the final possession.  Manu Ginobli’s clutch three sealed the Spurs’ victory and put the finishing touches on the historically great Game 1.

The Blueprint for Slowing Down Tony Parker

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NBA: Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs

 

(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

“Spurs basketball” has become synonymous with “efficiency”, and “playing to your strengths,” and, as much as even Tim Duncan, Tony Parker embodies San Antonio’s core values.  As control of the offense shifted from Tim Duncan to him, Parker has expanded his offensive game, but only within the boundaries of efficiency.  Though a late season ankle injury derailed his bid, Tony Parker was among the lower-ranking MVP candidates throughout the season.

Parker, along with most other Spurs, rarely attacks without advantage.  Of course, a player a skilled and quick as Parker finds himself able to create advantageous situations far more than most players.  According to Synergy, Parker ranks 14th in the league in isolation points per play, 24th off-screens, 15th in hand-off situations, 2nd on cuts, and 11th in the bread, butter, jam, plate, and accompanying glass of milk of his offense, the pick and roll.  The pick and roll comprises 46.2% of Parker’s offensive possessions, and is the main the central component of San Antonio’s offense.  San Antonio, which finished seventh in regular season offensive efficiency, either finishes or initiates many of its offensive possessions with a Parker-Duncan pick and roll, and generates opportunities for other players off defensive attention to this action.

Along with the high pick and roll, San Antonio uses a variety of sets to put Parker in position to score.

Here is the end result of a drag-screen/pin down play the Spurs often run.  Parker, a 47.2 percent mid-range shooter, is wide open for the jumper, but also has an open lane towards the middle of the key as his man recovers from the baseline.  If Pau Gasol steps down to help, Tim Duncan, a 43.3 percent mid-range shooter, will be wide open.  If Dwight Howard steps up to cut off Parker, a Tiago Splitter will likely have an open dunk as Parker’s defender chases Parker.  On this play, Parker takes and makes the mid-range jumper, but could have easily scored off the drive.  Parker’s touch around the rim, as well as the ability to find open looks in the paint based off his speed and hesitation moves make him one of the best finishing guards in the league, evidenced by a 67.8 percent field goal percentage in the restricted area.

Here, Dwight Howard covers the pick and roll the same way Andrew Bogut is expected to.  He drops into the paint, denying the drive, but leaving parker open for a mid-range jumper.  This is a better result for the Lakers than an open driving lane would be, but just as Ty Lawson did in the first round, Parker will be able to convert a high rate of these open opportunities.

Parker’s main flaw is his inconsistent shooting from behind the arc.  This season, he has made 37 percent of his left corner threes, an impressive 47.6 percent of his right corner threes, and only 21.1 percent of his above the break attempts.  Perhaps more telling are Parker’s limited attempts.  He has only taken 68 three-point shots this season.  Of course, leaving Parker open for jump shots is simply not a good strategy.  Though Synergy ranks him as the league’s 132nd best spot-up shooter, he still scores 1.01 points per play off these looks, a respectable points per-play (not to be confused with per possession: per possession factors in scoring opportunities off offensive rebounds, so per possession statistics for offenses will always show a higher offensive rating than per play) of 1.01.

The method for slowing Tony Parker has been in development since mid-season game against the Spurs, when, suffering from a fortunate bout of creative coaching, Mark Jackson started Klay Thompson on Tony Parker.  Though he lacks the speed of top defenders like the recently-overcome Andre Iguodala, Thompson’s size length allow him to disrupt point guards throughout possessions by forcing them to create more space for passing and driving lanes, and open shots.  In the first round, Mark Jackson showed a clear willingness to cross-match Thompson on to the quicker Ty Lawson, but did not fully commit to the strategy, as it often forced Stephen Curry to guard Andre Iguodala.  With Brewer in the game, the Warriors were generally able to switch without repercussions, but did not always take advantage of the opportunity.

Here, Ty Lawson cannot get around Thompson as he comes off the screen, and is pulls up for the three.  Thompson is long enough to contest the shot after sagging a couple feet off of Lawson to prevent the drive.

Against San Antonio, the Warriors should have an easier time switching Thompson on to Parker.  Stephen Curry will be able to guard Danny Green for many minutes, without fearing foul trouble, or giving up a significant size advantage to a main offensive piece like he did against Iguodala.

If the Warriors are to have any hope of stopping Tony Parker and the Spurs’ offense, Andrew Bogut will have to consistently be as physically active and mobile as he was during his best stretches against Denver.  Even if the series long exposure inspires Andre Iguodala level defense from Thompson, Tony Parker will find ways to the rim.  Against Parker’s calculated rim attacks, Bogut, the last line of defense, must constantly be in position to deny scoring opportunities without forcing extra Warriors’ to rotate down defensively, forcing Parker to kick to the perimeter, not to open shooters, but as an outlet from a contested shot.

Draymond Green’s offensive play in the final games against Denver makes another intriguing option possible.  So long is he is not too heavy a burden on the offense, Draymond Green may be the Warriors most effective pick and roll defending big man.  Unlike Carl Landry and David Lee’s defense often suggest, the four-year college player already has a high-level understanding of pick and roll defense, and has the mobility to act upon this knowledge.  Green saw more action as a perimeter defender than big man defender against Denver, but is one of the few Warriors who could effectively hedge and recover against Tony Parker off Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, or even Tim Duncan, who would likely take advantage of Green in the post.

The Warriors best option may simply be to force Parker to score and avoid compromising their rotations.   Parker scored efficiently against the Lakers in the first round, but by overcompensating, the Lakers played right into the Spurs desires.  San Antonio has put together a roster of shooters capable of taking advantage of any significant opening, and big men who can score in several situations.  When defenses focus their attention on Parker, they open many more scoring opportunities for San Antonio’s vaunted offense.

Three Keys To Preventing Denver’s Big-Men From Dominating

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Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors in Denver, Colorado.

(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

On a night when Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jarrett Jack all struggled offensively, it was Denver’s dominant frontcourt play along with a stellar game from Andre Iguodala, not the Warriors’ offensive struggles that propelled the Nuggets to victory.  Reminiscent of the performances continually surrendered by the Warriors in the pre-Bogut era, the Kenneth Faried, Javale McGee, Kosta Koufos big rotation scored efficiently, protected the paint, and controlled nearly every rebound.

Here are three keys to prevent a repeat performance in Game 6:

Decrease Transition Leak Outs:

To decrease the production of the Denver big men, the Warriors should limit wing players’ attempts at leaking out in transition.  The Nuggets, Corey Brewer especially, are famous for sprinting up the court as or even before a shot is released.  The Warriors are generally not overly aggressive in transition, but would benefit if wing players, especially Harrison Barnes, more consistently crashed the boards, limiting offensive rebounding opportunities by the Denver big men.  Avoiding transition leak-outs would leave more players in position to defend a Denver big off a rebound without forcing the Warriors to surrender much offensively.

The Warriors benefit from transition opportunities, but not in the typical sense.  Rarely does Golden State attack the rim on a non-turnover generated fast break.  Instead, they take advantage of mismatches and a retreating defense in “semi-transition,” seeking open three-pointers and exposed driving lanes.  Often, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and other Warriors wings will run straight to the corner-three, not to the basket, in transition opportunities.

The Warriors exceeded defensive rebounding expectations through the first five games of the series, but would not want to repeat the Game 6 performance.

More aggressive roll man help:

Throughout the regular season, the Warriors relied on wing defenders to help down on rolling big men as much as any team in the league.  Likely looking to compensate for David Lee’s weak pick-and-roll defense, the Warriors’ defenders consistently “bumped” big man, then scrambled to recover to shooters.  As a product of this help, David Lee, a below-average defender, finished ninth in the league in pick-and-roll roll man defense, according to mysynergysports.com.  These commitments did not come without consequence, as the Warriors surrendered the three point attempts per game in the NBA, according to hoopdata.com.

Against the Denver Nuggets the reprimands for over-helping may not be as severe.  During the regular season, Denver, with an adjusted field goal percentage from beyond the arc of 51.1 percent, was the 24th best three-point shooting team in the league.  By more aggressively helping onto rolling big men, the Warriors will be able to limit Denver’s bigs’ production, and allow the Warriors big men to hedge more aggressively on Ty Lawson.

Draw Fouls at the Rim:

The Warriors rarely get to the rim, averaging only 22.1 attempts at the rim per game, 29th in the league, and draw fouls at a below average rate when they do.  The According to basketball-reference, the Warriors average .201 free-throw attempts per field goal attempt, below the league average of .204.  Stephen Curry, the Warriors primary ball handler, and Klay Thompson, another high usage player, both have incredibly low free throw rates.  However, drawing fouls on the Nuggets big men, especially the foul-prone Javale McGee, is the easiest way to limit their productivity.  Instead of focusing on finishing the shot, Curry, Thomson, and the rest of the Warriors should emphasize drawing contact.

How Stephen Curry is Dominating the Denver Nuggets

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(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

Throughout the series, the Denver Nuggets have appeared to be committed to allowing any Golden State Warrior but Stephen Curry to beat them.  Following Denver’s Game 2 loss George Karl said, “the game plan was to keep the ball out of Stephen Curry’s hands…”  The Nuggets have fully committed to this strategy, and Stephen Curry has beaten them anyway.

NBA offenses are, or at least should be, designed to put players in situations that take advantage of their skill set, while defenses are designed to prevent these opportunities. Denver considers Curry the Warriors’ primary offensive threat and has adjusted accordingly, attempting to deny Curry any open attempts. What Denver has failed to realize is that Curry’s transcendent, all-time great shooting ability changes the definition of a “good shot.”

After penetrating off trapped pick and roll, Curry drives the lane, then kicks to the perimeter, forcing the Nuggets to rotate to cover an open Harrison Barnes in the left corner. Ty Lawson closes out, and Barnes passes to Bogut, who finds Curry in the corner. Wilson Chandler was in nearly perfect defensive position, and closes out well on Curry. Chandler takes a split-step to square himself so Curry cannot drive past him, but makes the fatal mistake of lowering his hand. Curry is known for his jump-shooting accuracy, but, along with his unlimited range and ability to shoot off the dribble, it is his lightning-quick release that separates him from the typical knockdown shooter.  Chandler realizes Curry is about to shoot, and lunges to contest the shot.

Unlike most players, Stephen Curry is not bothered by contests.  To disrupt Curry’s shot, a defender often has to literally block the ball.  Curry knocks down a three-point attempt that against a normal shooter would be considered contested, moving him to 5-of-6 from the left corner for the series.

Leading to this made three-pointer, Curry drove right on Andre Miller, crossed back towards the middle of the court and pulled up. As soon as Curry gathered, Corey Brewer lunged to contest the shot.  Denver has two men guarding Curry before the shot is released, once again appearing to deny Curry open opportunities.

Many point guards are heralded for their “court vision,” but for Curry, the term takes a different meaning.  Curry is constantly aware of the position of defenders, and their ability to affect his jump shot.  This spatial awareness, not the mere presence of defenders, often dictates whether Curry is “open” on a seemingly contested shot.

Again, two Nuggets are pressuring Curry, but neither can really affect the shot. As Ethan Sherwood Strauss explained, when defended by Lawson during the regular season, Curry would shoot without regard to the shorter Lawson’s defense.

This is likely not a shot Denver minds Curry taking, but by pulling up so far from the basket, Curry is able to take an uncontested, rhythm jump shot.  Curry has made eight of his 26 attempts from 25 to 34 feet, according to NBA.com, compared to 12-of-8 from 20 to 24 feet. Though this may seem to be an inefficient shot, 8-of-26 from beyond the arc results in an adjusted field goal percentage of 51.9 percent, 1.3 percent better than the Warriors’ team adjusted field goal percentage during the regular season.

Denver has relied on longer forwards Andre Iguodala and Corey Brewer to guard Curry for much of the series, but has been hesitant to fully commit to this strategy.  In the first two games, Klay Thompson took advantage of Denver’s cross-matching of Iguodala on Curry and Lawson on Thompson by repeatedly scoring out of the mid-post, hitting jumpers over the shorter Lawson, and attacking the paint. In Games 3 and 4, Denver has avoided replicating this experience, instead allowing Lawson or Miller to defend Curry for significantly more minutes.  Corey Brewer has defended Curry, but Denver likely fears that a Brewer, Iguodala line-up would compromise spacing to the point that defending both Curry and Thompson is not worth the offensive struggle.

Lawson and Miller, unfortunately for Denver, have been unable to slow Curry.  Instead of running pick and rolls to draw extra defenders, Curry isolates against the slower Miller and shorter Lawson, often resulting in an open mid-range jumper.  Mid-range jumpers are typically considered the worst field goal attempt for an offense, but again, Curry cannot be judged by normal standards.  This series, Curry is shooting 54.5 percent on mid-range jumpers, according to nba.com, plenty efficient enough to justify the attempts.

On defense, Curry has generally defended either Lawson or Miller, meaning that even when Iguodala or Brewer is meant to defend Curry, by running in transition Curry is either able to dictate matchups or find open transition three-point attempts as Denver scrambles to switch.

While Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, and other dynamic guards are redefining the point guard position, Stephen Curry has presented a dramatically different approach to being both a point guard and a scorer, and the Nuggets have yet to fully adapt.

Grading The Warriors Game 4 Victory

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Denver Nuggets v Golden State Warriors

(Written For Blue Man Hoop)

What was once an intriguing stop in the Nuggets playoff path has become a likely upset.  Following a game four victory, the Warriors will seek to spare the Nuggets the expense of a return trip to Oakland and complete the gentleman’s sweep.  In the meantime, each Warrior must be assigned a relatively arbitrary grade evaluating their performance in Game 4.   Though I despise this practice among teachers, these grades will be assigned based on performance relative to ability, not to objective performance.  Why?  As a generally pessimistic fan, I promised to judge the Warriors playoff performance based not on aggregate results, but on performance relative to my low expectations.  Of course, the Warriors have vastly exceeded those expectations to such a degree that even the aggregate results are hyperbolically impressive.

Stephen Curry:          A+

Despite a quiet first half scoring-wise, Curry was once again outstanding, scoring 31 points on 10-16 shooting.  In the 33 minutes Curry played, the Warriors outscored the Nuggets by 21 points.  Curry’s third quarter scoring barrage sunk the Nuggets, but by drawing constant attention, he kept the Warriors afloat throughout the game, setting up teammates both with his passing and by forcing the Nuggets to overcommit to on and off ball screen defense.  For those who do not appreciate the oral beauty of Steph Curry’s shooting, here is a more visual rendition.

Picture 1

Jarrett Jack:    A+

The Nuggets focused their defensive attention on Curry, and Jack took full advantage, scoring 21 points on 9 field goal attempts.  The constantly probing Jack also dished out 9 assists, and played 42 minutes.  The Nuggets generally placed their best perimeter defenders, Andre Igoudala and Corey Brewer, on Curry, leaving Jack to score on the smaller Ty Lawson and slower Andre Miller.  While it was Steph Curry who ignited the blowout, Jack was the steady hand guiding the Warriors to victory.

Klay Thompson:        C+

Thompson finished with 13 points on 5 of 10 shooting, and played a team-high 43 minutes.  Unlike the first two games, Thompson was not a focus of the Warriors offense, and unlike Game 3, he was not completely forgotten.  He guarded Andre Iguodala for the majority of his minutes, contributing both to his 19 points on 7 of 11 shooting and to his 7 turnovers.  Iguodala did make some difficult, contested shots over Thompson, but also took advantage of Thompson’s confused off ball defense to find cutting lanes and open three-point attempts.  For several possessions, Thompson defended Lawson, who was able to score, but with far less ease than in his earlier minutes defended by Jarrett Jack.

Andrew Bogut:          A

Adding to a typically solid defensive night, Bogut had his best offensive performance of the season.  The Nuggets decided to trap Curry off pick and rolls, and committed for even longer than they have throughout the series, giving Bogut the space to attack the rim and find Warriors shooters.  Through the first three games, Bogut was hesitant upon receiving the pass from Curry after setting a screen, but tonight, was ferociously aggressive, mixing a few fancy passes with his assaults on the rim. This was the Bogut the Warriors envisioned in the Monte Ellis trade.

Harrison Barnes:       C-

Harrison Barnes played an ineffectual 31 minutes, balancing decent but not game-changing defense with inefficient offense.  Barnes contributed to the struggles of several Nuggets, but, after two promising performances, seemed to have no great effect on the outcome of this game.

Draymond Green:     A+

This was quite possibly Green’s best game of the season.  In 25 minutes off the bench, the rookie scored 13 points on 5-8 shooting, had 6 rebounds and 4 steals, and contributed to the Warriors outscoring the Nuggets by 15 points over his playing time.  Green made 2 shots from behind the arc, and played aggressive defense on several Nuggets, including Ty Lawson, Andre Miller, and Andre Iguodala.  This game was the ideal example of what the Warriors hope to receive from Draymond Green in the future.

Carl Landry    B+

Continuing his player-option playoff tour, Landry scored 17 points and 11 field goal attempts, and, though he only played 18 minutes, helped the Warriors punish Denver for trapping pick and roll ball handlers.

How Can the Warriors Slow Ty Lawson?

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(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

Up two to one, with two more home games, the Warriors have to be feeling good.  But, they have one nagging problem: Ty Lawson.  Lawson struggled in game one, but has consistently abused the Warriors’ defense, setting up teammates and scoring himself.  In game 3, Lawson exploded for 35 points on 22 field goal attempts and 11 free throw attempts.

While Lawson has been effective in transition, and iso’d on several possessions, the majority of his offense has been generated through the pick and roll.  According to mysynergysports.com, Lawson ends 34.5 percent of his possessions as the pick and roll ball handler.  In these situations, Lawson scores 0.89 points per play, 23rd best in the league.  The Warriors had the league’s 13th best defense by points per play, but struggled to defend the pick and roll ball handler, allowing 0.83 points per play, 25th in the league.

The Warriors generally ice pick and rolls, especially when Bogut is involved.  This is a good strategy for slowing the ball handler while giving the big man time to recover to the roll man, but forces the big man to attempt to contain the ball handler before the guard can recover, and against the lightning-quick Ty Lawson, the Warriors have struggled.

Lawson Bogut ice 1

The Nuggets are often criticized for lacking a complex offense.  Their possessions often devolve into a simple high pick and roll with little organized off ball movement. But in the last two games against the Warriors, at least when Ty Lawson plays, this has been effective.  In games 2 and 3, the Nuggets have scored 124 and 128 points per 100 possessions with Lawson in the game.  The play shown above demonstrates many of the options the Nuggets have available out of the high pick and roll.

Jarrett Jack is supposed to prevent Lawson from using Kenneth Faried’s screen, but is too far from Faried, who simply moves to the other side of Jack.  In typical “ice” fashion, Bogut sags off the screen, hoping to prevent Lawson from getting to the basket, but because the screen was set so high, Bogut is forced to extend all the way to the elbow, far enough that Lawson has space to get by him.  With Jack hung up on the screen, there is several feet of space between Lawson and any Warriors defenders, leaving Lawson wide open for a mid-range jump shot.  Lawson shot 40.3 percent from mid-range this season, but since the all-star break, has made an incredible 52.4 percent of his mid range attempts, per to nba.com.

Lawson chooses to drive at the retreating Bogut, forcing Harrison Barnes to decide between cutting off the drive and staying on Wilson Chandler, a 41.3 percent three-point shooter.  Barnes hesitates for a moment, ample time for Lawson to burn Bogut and get the rim with only Stephen Curry to defend him.

Picture 2

This is Ty Lawson’s shot chart for the first three games.  Lawson has attempted 24 shots at the rim, and only 7 from mid-range.  Though many of his at the rim shots come from transition opportunities, the Warriors have done a poor job forcing Lawson into taking mid-range jump shots.  Though Lawson has shot a high percentage on these attempts recently, allowing him to get all the way to the basket draws help defenders, and compromises the Warriors far more than a hopefully semi-contested jump shot would.

Andrew Bogut is not yet mobile enough to contain Lawson beyond the free throw line, forcing the Warriors to find another method of defending one of the fastest players in the league.  In the last few months of the regular season, and sporadically throughout the series with the Nuggets, the Warriors have defended point guards with the 6’-7” Klay Thompson.  Like nearly every player in the league, Thompson is not quick enough to defend Lawson without help, but his size does allow him to be more effective in preventing Lawson from using screens and contesting pull up jump shots while remaining in position to deny the drive.

Klay Thompson may be able to slow Lawson, but defending any good scorer is a team effort.  As Zach Lowe detailed for Grantland, NBA defenses are almost always under-help.

Picture 1

With Wilson Chandler out of the picture just crossing half court, Harrison Barnes should position himself at the free throw line and at least a step closer to Lawson, directly in his driving lane.  Also, Andrew Bogut should step off Javale McGee and into the center of the line. Though he my fear another embarrassment at the hands of McGee, discouraging Lawson from penetrating should be the priority. In both this play and the play previously shown, Harrison Barnes should be much more aggressive with his help defense.  Helping “one pass away” is a generally flawed practice, but intelligent positioning that allows a defender to guard his man and affect the ball handler will be necessary in the Warriors efforts to defend Ty Lawson.