Author Archives: Joe

Stephen Curry: How Can He Get Back On Track?

Posted on by
Reply

Stephen Curry’s hot hand may be limited to the court, but over the last month he has set the basketball world on fire.  After suffering through the Curry experience in Game 1, the Spurs began experimenting new defensive strategies to be used on Curry.  Amid the cries of “top five point guard!” and “best shooter ever!” Gregg Popovich was focused on slowing the newly anointed star.

 

Though likely helped by an ankle injury, the Spurs have greatly limited Curry since Game 2.  In three games since the Game 2 victory in San Antonio, Stephen Curry has a true shooting percentage of only 47.9 percent, far below of 58.9 percent true shooting during the regular season and 57.1 percent for the playoffs.  These struggles have not simply been a matter of scoring efficiency.  Curry’s assist percentage (percent of teammates field goals assisted while on court) has dropped from his regular season 31.1 percent to 24.1 percent, and his usage rate has dropped from 26.4 percent to 22.6 percent.  Along with dramatically limiting his efficiency, the Spurs have pressured Curry out of his typical rate of creation.

 

In Game 1 Tony Parker was Stephen Curry’s primary defender.  Since then, Curry has primarily faced Danny Green, with intermittent spurts versus Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard.  Tony Parker is a match-up liability versus the Warriors’ large wings, but the Spurs are clearly willing to surrender this in exchange for the ability to keep Green consistently matched up with Curry.

 

In his second year in San Antonio, Danny Green has developed into a very good perimeter defender.  Warriors fans may recognize his ability to use his length to his advantage after recently admiring Klay Thompson’s defense.  Green also has the strength, quickness, defensive instincts, and understanding of help-schemes to be a very good defender both on and off the ball.

 

Green’s willingness to pick up James Harden so far from the basket does not suggest he would ever give Curry the space to take an uncontested jump shot, as Harden is a far greater threat to attack the rim than Curry.

 

Green will not willingly surrender an inch of space on the perimeter, and in the pick and roll, the Spurs big men have been more committed to hedging and trapping Curry since Game 2.

 

Green, assisted by Curry’s shift to an off ball role, has done very well in limiting Curry’s space and denying any shooting opportunities.  Over the course of the series, Curry has shifted towards an off-ball role.  This off-ball role in Game 4 may have been induced by an ankle injury at the end of Game 3, but Curry’s shift began before Game 4, and continued through Game 5, when Curry appeared less hampered by ankle troubles.  This shift to an off-ball role may be due to a belief that Curry puts more pressure on the defense running through off-ball screens, or that Curry needs the structured spacing of these plays to find scoring opportunities, but regardless of the Warriors’ motivation, Danny Green, along with the entire Spurs defense, has been excellent in preventing Curry from performing well offensively in this role.

 

To get Curry “going” again, the Warriors can wait for some miracle shooting, or proactively create beneficial offensive opportunities.  They have attempted to free Curry for jump shots through off-ball action, but the disciplined Spurs have allowed very little space to Curry, often hedging or not-so-accidentally bumping Curry as he runs through off-ball screens.  Athletic defenders like Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are able to chase Curry through these patterns without losing any significant ground.

 

Throughout the seasons, Curry’s primary method of on-ball attack was the pick and roll.  32.2 percent of Curry’s shot attempts, drawn fouls, or turnovers were generated through the pick and roll, far more than any other category tracked by mysynergysports.com.  The Warriors recognize Curry’s proficiency in the pick and roll, and have developed a complex offense around the pick and roll.

 

Curry’s pick and roll are generally initiated from to locations, the top of key above the three-point line, or slightly above the break.  Against top of the key pick and rolls, the Spurs big men generally stay in the paint, leaving Curry open for mid-range jump shots.  Possibly because the athleticism of Green and Leonard makes these shots more difficult, Curry has been less aggressive off top of the key pick and rolls.  He made his way into the paint off several at the beginning of Game 5, but went away from this action as the game progressed.

 

With the Warriors seemingly committed to using Curry off-ball, especially when Jarrett Jack is playing, many of Curry’s recent pick and rolls have been initiated towards the wing.  Curry generally finishes off-ball plays in the corner or near the break, and drifts towards the wing.  As the primary ball-handler, Curry will often dribble to this spot to set up the pick and roll.

 

Throughout the season, the Warriors ran these “Hawk Angle” pick and rolls.  This action is generally preceded by a cutter running through the lane.

 

Against San Antonio, the Warriors have been reluctant to send this cutter when running hawk-angle pick and rolls.

 

 

In this play, Klay Thompson sets the screen for Curry, and rolls towards the right corner.  The Warriors spacing on this play allows Boris Diaw to defend and box out both Landry and Lee, leaving Tim Duncan free to cover any penetration, meaning Kawhi Leonard can hedge aggressively deny the jump shot before recovering to Thompson.

 

The goal of this pick and roll may just be to draw a Parker switch onto Thompson, but the Warriors have run the hawk-angle pick and roll without sending the cutter regardless of the screener during this series.  Even if Klay Thompson were on the opposite wing and David Lee was setting the screen, the  Spurs’ help defenders would be able to free Duncan by having the man in the corner step down to fill Duncan’s rotation, only punishable by an extremely difficult kick pass by Curry to the opposite corner only LeBron James has mastered.

 

 

 

On this iteration of the hawk angle pick and roll, Klay Thompson runs through the lane as Harrison Barnes comes to set the screen.  This forces the defense to account for Thompson running through the lane and coming off a screen on the opposite side, forcing Howard and Gasol to commit to help defense longer than expected, giving Curry more room to operate both in the middle of the court and on the right side.

 

Curry’s ankle injury may render any hope for Curry’s re-emergence as an offensive star a failure, but putting Curry in position to succeed is necessary if the Warriors hope to come back in the series.  Off-ball actions often devolve into simple isolations on the catch, and against the Spurs have rarely produced open looks.  Operating out of the pick and roll allows Curry to create or find his own space, and affects San Antonio’s defense much more than spot-ups and off-ball screens typically do.  Stephen Curry has become an elite offensive NBA player, and as any Knicks (or general NBA) viewer will confirm, putting an offensive talent in position to succeed involves more than simply getting them the ball.

Are the Warriors Better off With Stephen Curry in an off-ball roll?

Posted on by
Reply

(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

Early in Stephen Curry’s career, there was uncertainty as to whether he should play shooting guard or point guard.  Some thought Curry lacked the ball handling and court awareness to run the point.  Curry has put these concerns to rest, but there is still some public doubt as to which role maximizes Curry’s talents and the Warriors’ efficiency.

However, the Warriors still often use Curry in an off ball roll.  Throughout the games, the Warriors run series of screens designed to free Curry for a shot while another player, typically Jarrett Jack, runs the offense. These plays typically come in the form of a “floppy” set, in which Curry takes a series of staggered screens, generally looking for a corner three point attempt, while allowing structured reads and general improvisation through the play, or more simple pin-downs, which can result in a spot up look, but often lead into a pick and roll.

Along with their more basic sets, the Warriors have developed unique play designs, including the “Figure 8” set:

and the “Elevator Play”:

Curry is one of the league’s most effective off-ball shooters.  According to mysynergysports.com, Curry scores 1.35 points per play in spot-up situations, 5th in the league, and 1.07 points per play off screens, 20th in the league.

The Warriors use Curry off-ball throughout games, but much of his off ball play comes in the fourth quarter, when Jarrett Jack often runs the offense, with Curry spacing the floor.

Even off-ball, Curry demands the constant attention of the defense.  Curry’s defender often needs to chase him through screens and around the court, and the rest of the defense must hedge, trap, and deny screens to give Curry’s defender time to recover.  This often draws defensive help from the ball handler, allowing Jarrett Jack, Klay Thompson, and the other Warriors to attack with decreased defensive pressure.

However, the defensive attention drawn by Curry off ball does far less to benefit the Warriors than Curry’s on ball creation.  Curry scores effectively on-ball.  He is the league’s 27th best pick and roll ball handler and 32nd best isolation scorer in terms of points per play, and had an impressive assist percentage of 29.8 percent during the regular season.

Curry is able to create scoring opportunities for both himself and for teammates, and his teammates are much more efficient at converting the looks Curry generates for them than they are at attacking when Curry is playing an off-ball roll.  With David Lee no longer available to take advantage of defensive attention on Curry off-ball, Curry’s creation becomes even more necessary to the Warriors’ offense.

Breaking Down Nerlens Noel’s First Half Versus Texas A&M

Posted on by
Reply

0:02    Texas A&M sets a high off-ball screen to free up Fabian Harris.  This leaves two Kentucky players to guard three Texas A&M players on the left side of the floor.  Noel, helped by the Texas A&M big man cutting early, likely in anticipation of a drive, remains in the center of the key long enough to force Harris to commit to the drive.  Noel displays good defensive technique, sliding with Harris and staying directly between him and the basket, and blocks the shot.  Noel was helped by Kentucky’s ability to completely disregard the screener.  In the NBA, that man will likely be able to take the mid-range jumper, but stopping the drive would still be Noel’s primary responsibility.

0:10    In case you didn’t realize, Nerlens Noel is extremely athletic.

0:15    Noel attempts to box out, which is good, but does not really seal his man as he cuts towards the key.

0:21    Again, Noel is much more athletic than his college counterparts.  He both his dive to the rim and jump well, and finishes the dunk.  While this was an offensive rebound, the hard dive to the rim and coordinated finish suggest potential as a pick and roll big man.

0:30    Noel is looking for the block, but the Texas A&M guard gets the shot off over him.  Noel was not in good position on this play, he was too close to the rim, and did not step up towards the driving player.  If Noel just waits at the rim, good players are able to time their shots to get over or around him.  A player like Marc Gasol steps towards the play, hoping to cut off the drive and prevent a shot from even being attempted, rather than going for the block.

0:33    Noel kicks out to Alex Poythress as soon as he is doubled in the post, and Poythress makes the semi-contested three.  This is a nice pass by Noel, who finished the game with 6 assists, however Noel’s post technique appears flawed.  He s leaning back off balance, and his legs are spread too wide for him to be able to make any on-balance move.

0:45    Here, Noel takes advantage of a smaller defender, pounding his way into the lane for a hook shot.  Though the shot goes in, you can see why Noel is not considered a dominant post scorer.  He turns his body before going up with the shot, and the hook appears is more of a throw towards the basket than an a smooth shot.  While he may be able to score on smaller, less athletic defenders, Noel will have to improve his technique before his jump-hook becomes a reliable NBA weapon.

0:53    Here is why Noel has such high defensive potential.  No, he will not be relied upon to guard guards above the three point line, but he shows his mobility and coordination.  Noel is no lumbering, Hasheem Thabeet style big man.  He is mobile enough to help across the lane, hedge and recover on pick and rolls, and guard smaller players on switches.

1:01    While this post move again may not be the smoothest, Noel clearly understands the value of deep post position, and finishes with his left hand, a valuable skill for any NBA player.

1:07    Noel clearly has affected the shot selection of Texas A&M.  Caruso realizes Noel is in position to challenge, and is forced to take a difficult up-and-under.

1:17    On this possession, Noel is not able to cut of Kourtey Roberson’s drive, but stays with him defensively and does not allow an easy shot.  Again, Noel’s mobility is key to his defensive impact.

1:43    Noel’s teammate does not take a very good angle on the screen, allowing the defender to go under without losing any position.  Noel rolls well to the rim, then seals his man in the post, but misses the hook.  Noel should look to move towards the basket and keep his man sealed on the drop-step, but instead steps out laterally from the rim, simply forcing himself off-balance.

1:52    Noel makes a smart pass to Willie Cauley-Stein at the far left elbow, then does a good job avoiding getting in the way of Cauley-Stein’s drive.  Noel could have gone after the offensive rebound, but by stepping back to allow space for the drive, he allowed himself to be boxed out.

2:00    Great anticipation by Noel, another sign of a good defender.

2:10    Noel allows his man to get in between him and the basket in transition, but realizes his mistake as the shot is released, and pushes the Aggie in the back without blatantly fouling.  Noel should have cut off his man’s path to the rim, though this mistake did no damage.

In this first half, Nerlens Noel displayed why he is such a highly valued defensive prospect while flashing potential offensively.  Noel could have been more assertive offensively throughout the game offensively, but made Texas A&M constantly aware of his defensive influence.  In the NBA, Noel could develop into a very good defensive big man, and could potentially fill a Tyson Chandler style roll offensively.  If Noel can develop his post up and passing game to Dwight higher levels, he may be used in the mold of a lower usage version of Dwight Howard offensively.

Warriors Secure Split, Even Series at 2-2

Posted on by
Reply

The Warriors overcame poor shooting and an eight-point halftime deficit to even the series at two games apiece.  The Warriors held the Spurs to 35.5 percent shooting, only slightly worse than their 38.0 percent performance, and were especially effective defensively to end the game.  After injuring his ankle at the end of Game 3, Stephen Curry appeared slowed, and spent the majority of the game off the ball, often forgotten as the Warriors struggled offensively.

Why the Warriors Won:      

In classic Warriors fashion, the Warriors controlled the boards and dominated defensively.  Well, maybe it was not the typical Golden State victory, and maybe the Warriors’ defensive success was as much a result of poor shooting by San Antonio as it was due to the Warriors’ actions, but the Warriors grabbed several key offensive rebounds, made a few vital stops, and received just enough assistance from San Antonio to eek out a victory.

Key Stretch:  

With 4:18 left in the fourth quarter, Kawhi Leonard pulled down an easy offensive and scored on an uncontested layup, putting the Spurs up 80 to 72.  Over the next three possessions, Jarrett Jack made three straight midrange jumpers, while the Spurs scored only once, decreasing the lead to four.  More importantly, the Jack had returned some semblance of offensive production to the Warriors’ offense while the Spurs’ struggles continued.

MVP:

Today’s award goes to Jarrett Jack, almost by default.  Jack scored 24 points on 9-of-16 shooting, and though they eventually won, Jack led the Warriors through many offensive possessions that were nothing more than offensive.  Jack did not play well defensively, though he was not abused to the same degree as prior games, but someone has to take credit for the Warriors’ late game comeback.  Jack keyed the Warriors offense down the stretch, avoided any crippling turnovers, and was efficient enough for the Warriors to win.

Notable Performances:

Stephen Curry, despite appearing immobile for many stretches, scored 22 points on 7-of-15 shooting.  Curry was a team high plus-23 in his 39 minutes, but was not able to be the offensive focus on whom the Warriors have come to rely.  Harrison Barnes attempted a career-high 26 field goals, but only made nine.  Barnes repeatedly attacked out of the mid-post and off wing isolations, often against the smaller Tony Parker and Gary Neal.

On a night when nearly every player struggled offensively, Manu Ginobli may have been the most dynamic.  Ginobli made 5-of-10 attempts from behind the arc, and converted 8-of-18 shots to score 21 points.  Ginobli missed several key attempts towards the end of the game, and though he created much of the Spurs’ offense, he often damaged it as well.

How Has Jarrett Jack’s Playoff Performance Affected His Free-Agent Value?

Posted on by
Reply

San Antonio Spurs v Golden State Warriors

(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

On May 2nd, Marcus Thompson reported that Jarrett Jack did not intend to sign an extension with the Warriors, and would enter free agency.  In the article, Thompson wrote, “He is expected to be a fairly well sought after this offseason, especially with the postseason he’s having, as multiple teams are looking for a point guard.”

 

Jack may have impressed in his first few postseason games, but after recent difficulties, he has emerged as the scapegoat for most of the Warriors’ struggles.  Statistically, Jack is only slightly worse than he was during the regular season, but several blown key decisions, typical egregious shot-selection without expected results, and defensive lapses have turned many Warriors’ fans against the sixth man.

 

During the playoffs, Jack has recorded a Player Efficiency Rating of 15.9, the exact same as his regular season P.E.R.  Jack has scored 16.2 points per 36 minutes, 0.5 above his season production, and has actually increased his efficiency in doing so.  Jack shot a 54.2 percent true shooting percentage during the regular season, which has improved to 57.8 percent through nine playoff games.

 

Jack primarily functions as a scoring guard, and while he has maintained his scoring ability, his contribution in other areas have dramatically decreased.  Jack’s assist percentage has decreased from 29.9 percent to 22.8, and his turnover percentage has increased from 14.3.0 to 21.0.

 

The increased turnover rates and decreased assist rates are especially noticeable given Stephen Curry’s outstanding playoffs.  Jack is blamed for taking potential shots from Curry, Thompson, and the other Warriors, and often takes the fall for their struggles while appearing irrelevant to their successes.

 

So, how has Jarret Jack’s playoff performance affected his free agent value?

 

First off, I do not expect that general manager’s typically put a ton of stock into playoff performance over a limited number of games.  The nine games Jack has played in the playoffs represent 10.2 percent of Jack’s total games played this season.  While this is not an entirely insignificant portion, there is plenty of data available that should influence a GM’s decision more than these playoffs.  We often ridicule GM’s for judging a college player based on his performance in a few tournament games, and a judgment of Jack based solely on his playoff performance would be worthy of equal ridicule.

 

However, Jack’s play does reveal several of the major flaws in Jack’s game.  He is a scoring guard whose shot-selection would not generally lead to efficient scoring, struggles defensively, and whose poor court vision is often detrimental to his team.  He repeatedly makes bad decisions, highlighted by a hilariously awful turnover at the end of Game 3 versus San Antonio, and does not appear conscious of his struggles.

 

Jack’s ability to lead an effective offense has been brought into question by his struggles without Curry on the court, damaging his value to teams, such as the Utah Jazz, searching for a lead guard.  If Jack’s 16 game disaster spanning March was not enough to make teams aware of this, the playoffs exemplify why Jack’s current role may already be beyond his ability.

 

The Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Bobcats, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, New Orleans Hornets, Orlando Magic,Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, and Utah Jazz will all have sufficient cap space to offer Jack a contract paying more than his current 5 million dollar salary.

 

In free agency, Jack will likely be looking for a significant increase in both salary and role.  He may be willing to remain a backup point guard, perhaps still with the Warriors, but it is unlikely that he would do so without a pay raise and long-term contract.

 

Of the teams listed, four, Cleveland, Houston, Phoenix, and Portland, have point guards already under contract next season who would likely not surrender the starting role to Jack.  Though Jameer Nelson may not be a better player than Jack, it is highly unlikely that the rebuilding Orlando would want to add Jack’s contract, as they, along with Charlotte, have no real motive to attempt to improve next season. Several of the teams listed have free-agent point guards they could likely re-sign.  Atlanta will negotiate to keep Jeff Teague, Brandon Jennings has hinted at signing the qualifying offer with Milwaukee, and Jose Calderon may re-sign with Detroit, who could easily switch Brandon Knight back to point guard.  Sacramento may or may not be able to retain Tyreke Evans, who is generally used as a small forward or shooting guard, already has Isaiah Thomas, and has no need for another shoot first guard.  New Orleans is likely comfortable with Greivis Vasquez as a starter, though he is possibly worse than Jack defensively, and would likely rather keep their options open than pay Jack to continue their mediocrity.

 

Though the NBA landscape can obviously change very quickly, these conditions present only one destination for Jarrett Jack that would likely offer him the starting job; Utah.  The Jazz finished the regular season 43-39, and contended for a playoff spot until the final week of the season despite playing with a point guard rotation of an often-injured Mo Williams, Jamaal Tinsley, Earl Watson, and Alec Burks.  The cap space through which Jarrett Jack would potentially be signed will be created by the possible departure of their leading big men, Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap.  Utah may feel that the presence of a decent point guard will recreate the offensive production of Jefferson or Millsap, and that, with Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter waiting to replace the incumbent starters, the team will again be able to contend for a playoff spot.

 

Many of the teams with potential cap space have need of a backup point guard. Cleveland may make a push at the playoffs, and though Shaun Livingston was productive, could use a boost off the bench.  If Portland is unable or does not wish to re-sign Eric Maynor, point guard will join every other position on their list of bench needs, and many teams may desire the scoring punch provided by the aggressive Jack.

 

The playoffs have likely hurt Jack’s ability to be considered as a potential starter, or at least a starter for a successful team, but he may not have had many opportunities in this role to begin with.  Jack’s future as a well paid back up has not been dramatically damaged by his playoff performance, as teams are well aware of his flaws and will hope to limit those in a back up role.

 

I asked the ESPN’s Daily Dime Live what contract the dimers expected Jack to receive and from whom.  Cole Patty, a write for Portland Roundball Society responded that he expected Jack to receive a four year, 40 million-dollar offer from the Utah Jazz.  For a team that really should be rebuilding and developing young talent, this seems to me like an extreme commitment.  I would expect Jack to receive a contract closer to three years, 21-30 million-dollars, possibly with a second year team option, especially if offered from the Jazz.

 

I also believe that it is best for the future of the Warriors to not re-sign Jarrett Jack.  Jack prevented the Warriors from winning many winnable games, but also helped the Warriors to victory.  In the aggregate, Jack was a positive contributor this year, but he, especially his crunch-time role, may hinder the development of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Harrison Barnes.  Barnes lost many minutes to Jack and the Warriors’ three-guard lineups, Curry was forced off-ball, which, though it may help Curry short-term, is not conducive to the development of an elite point guard and scorer, and Thompson lost several shot attempts and ability to develop his ball-handling skills when Jack took over as point guard.

 

Part of my belief in Jack’s expendability may come from an irrational love for Kent Bazemore.  I do not think that the Warriors’ three-guard lineups featuring Jack are necessary to their long-term success, especially when Jack forces Curry off-ball.  In sporadic spurts, Kent Bazemore has shown himself to be a capable ball handler and impressive defender, and could likely play the back-up point guard for 10-15 minutes a game, with Brandon Rush replacing Jarrett Jack in the Warriors’ small ball units.

 

Jack has his high’s and low’s as a player, and though the playoffs have been a low, his value as a backup point-guard has not decreased significantly, and though it would likely be misguided to trust Jack as your starting point guard regardless of his playoff performance, the playoffs have displayed the flaws that prevent Jack from attaining this role.

Is Klay Thompson an Elite Defender?

Posted on by
Reply

url-1

 

(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

 

Though the Charlotte Bobcats may beg to differ, the goal of NBA defense is to deny the opposing offense efficient shot opportunities, force turnovers, and limit offensive rebounds.  To complete this goal, defenses must prevent an offense from gaining situational advantages, and be able to recover when advantages are gained.

Effective defense requires the cooperation of a group of defenders, but a single elite defender can greatly decrease the burden on fellow defenders while pressuring an offense.  The ability to limit the opposing team’s offensive focus greatly impacts offensive production.  For example, according to basketball-reference.com, the Nuggets hold opponents to 104.0 points per 100 possessions with Andre Iguodala on the court and give up 108.4 with him off.  Obviously, defensive rating is dependent the combined performance of several players and differentials are impacted by the strength of bench defenders, but the impact of a single elite defender is clear.

 

Over the course of the season, especially the last few months, Klay Thompson has emerged as the Warriors’ go-to perimeter defender.  While the Warriors offense contributes a great deal of their success, the ability to play above-average defense has keyed their winning season and playoff run.  In the playoffs alone, Klay Thompson has defended several primary creators for a significant number of possessions, including Ty Lawson, Andre Iguodala, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli.

 

As these matchups show, Thompson has been used on a range of positions.  Versatility without production has no real value, but Thompson knows how to use his natural length to turn his potential into production.   In the Game 2 post-game press conference, Thompson detailed his plan against Tony Parker.  “I just tried to use my length as much as possible to bother him (Parker).  He’s one of the best scoring point guards in the paint, probably in the history of the NBA so I just tried to make him take contested, tough jumpers over me and I thought we all did a good job of that tonight.”  Thompson applies this basic strategy to most defensive assignments, knowing that he is tall and long enough to contest shots while sagging off to prevent a drive.

Here, Manu Ginobli is isolating on Thompson.  Thompson is a few feet off Ginobli, leaving him plenty of space to recover, but has his hand up, and clearly is capable of influencing the shot.

Ginobli makes his move, but is unable to get past Thompson, and is forced into a contested fade-away.

Compare Thompson’s defense to Jarret Jack’s in a similar situation.  Jack must position himself a few steps higher to deny a wide-open jump shot, and does not have room to recover once the speedy Ty Lawson makes his move.

 

Even against Andre Miller, an inept shooter from behind the arc, Jack is only a few steps off of Miller.

During the regular season, the Warriors allowed 106.2 points per 100 possessions with Thompson on the court, and 103.2 with Thompson off.  This would suggest that Thompson is a poor defender, however there are several factors that contribute to this discrepancy, the most glaring of which is David Lee’s poor defense.  During the regular season, Thompson played the majority of his minutes alongside David Lee, whose defense is widely consideredless than helpful.  In 325 minutes played in the playoffs with Thompson on the court, the Warriors have allowed only 102.3 points per 100 possessions and are giving up an absurd 122.7 points per 100 possessions in 69 minutes with Thompson off.  This 69 minute sample is clearly not indicative of the Warriors true defensive quality with Thompson off the court, and the recently-impressive Andrew Bogut is likely responsible for much of the defensive disparity between the two lineups, but the Warriors have clearly been significantly better defensively with Thompson in the line-up since the David Lee injury.  Not coincidentally, these last few weeks have seen a dramatic increase in public appreciation of Thompson’s defense, pushing him closer to being designated a top-notch defender.  82games.com offers a more player specific statistic.  This season, Thompson allowed a Player Efficiency Rating of 13.5 to opposing shooting-guards, and 14.1 to opposing small-forwards.  Thompson has spent a significant portion of time matched up with opposing point guards, yet no such match-ups have been recorded by 82games.com, suggesting a flaw in the data-collection or position-distinction method, but nevertheless, Thompson has held his counterparts at both positions to a PER below the regularized average of 15.0.

 

A popular cliché among basketball fans says that, “there are two-sides to the ball.”  Don’t ask me how two-distinct sides were found on a spherical object, but it is clear that basketball players must be productive on both offense and defense to fully benefit their team.  Klay Thompson has reached a level of defense that his ability to be a very good two-way player is hampered more by offensive than defensive issues, but despite Thompson’s vast defensive improvements, flaws remain.

 

Basketball is a competition between two teams, and as possession shifts between them, these teams play both offense and defense.  However, there are deeper defensive dualities, parts of which Thompson has not yet mastered, preventing him from impacting the game at the same level as elite defenders.

 

For all his success as an on-ball defender, Thompson often struggles with his man off-ball.   According to mysynergysports.com, Thompson is most effective defending isolation, pick and roll ball-handler, and pick and roll roll-man plays, allowing 0.79, 0.67, and 0.59 points per play, compared to an overall points per play surrendered of 0.82.  All three of these play types are require the offensive player to be either on ball, or directly engaged with the ball handler.  In situations like these, Thompson is effective.  He generally has good defensive positioning and footwork, and though quicker players can get by him, he rarely allows easy shots.  However, despite his work offensively off the ball, Thompson is prone to several recurring mistakes while guarding his man off-ball.

 

Thompson tends to lose awareness of the specific location of his man while still knowing the general area of his man.  Thompson will often watch the ball, even turning his back on his matchup.  Fully guarding your man through an entire possession is bad defense.  A defender should always be in position to help, but losing this awareness can lead to open spot up attempts.

 

Here, Thompson turns his back on Andre Iguodala (visible behind the big head in the lower left corner), who was standing approximately where the ref is currently located in the image.  As Wilson Chandler drives the lane, Iguodala drifts down to the corner.  Chandler makes the pass out to Iguodala, and Thompson begins running towards where he expects Iguodala to be.  Here we see Thompson changing course, losing valuable time to contest Iguodala’s jump shot.  According to mysynergysports.com, Thompson allowed 0.88 points per play to opponents in spot-up opportunities and 1.02 to opponent off-ball screen plays.

 

As was detailed before, a productive defense relies on a combination of effective on ball defense and help defense.  Though on-ball defense stands out, the most impactful defenders are generally those who can cover for others’ mistakes, and discourage opponents from driving to the rim or looking for a shot.  Because of this, big men are generally more valuable defensively than wings or guards.  Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Tyson Chandler, Dwight Howard, Andrew Bogut, and the other top-defensive big men are able to prevent opponents from taking on of the most efficient shots in basketball; the layup, and are the back line of defense that discourages opponents from looking for more efficient shot opportunities.

 

Along with good defensive big men, elite wing and guard defenders impact both their own man and the rest of the offense.  This is the highest of bars, but look how far off his man in the corner LeBron James is while playing help defense.

LeBron is ready to contest any attempt at the basket by Nate Robinson, but has the athleticism and awareness to recover to Bellielli in the corner if Robinson where to pass to him.

 

 

James is clearly impactful on-ball, but watch how often his aggressive off-ball positioning generates a highlight play.  In his article on SportVu and the ideal defense, Zach Lowe noted that the Miami heat defense most closely resembled the aggression of the “ghost” players created by Toronto’s staff to replicate the proper defensive rotations and positioning in a given situation by estimated value statistics.

 

Klay Thompson does not have the athleticism to impact opposing defenses to the degree that LeBron James and the best on and off ball defenders do, but as he gets more comfortable with NBA help schemes he may lift his defense to new levels.

 

While Klay Thompson has his defensive flaws, the fact that this question is being posed about the second year player suggest a bright defensive future.

Was Game 1 the Greatest Game Ever?

Posted on by
Reply

(Written for Blue Man Hoop)

First off, any superlative designated without concrete proof will be subject to opinion, and determining the “best” is an often-impossible exercise that serves not to come to a definite conclusion, but to further collective appreciation for an incredible game.

As a Warriors fan, the last 15 or so minutes were as excruciating for me as I imagine they were exciting for an objective viewer, and while I have definitely experienced more “enjoyable” games, from an objective perspective, Game 1 was the pinnacle of basketball entertainment.

Historically, several factors have embedded games in our collective memories, and Game 1 had them all.

In the supposedly star-driven NBA, individual performances often stand above team results.  We do not remember Game 6 of the 1980 NBA finals as the time the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Philadelphia 76ers to clinch the series.  Instead, that game was made legendary by Magic Johnson’s brilliant performance in the absence of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.  Tales of Magic Johnson starting at center and playing every single position have persevered without regard to the team-level circumstances or results of the game, other than a basic knowledge of its importance and victor.  Similarly, Game 6 of last year’s eastern conference finals between the Celtics and Heat, is often described as “The Lebron Game,” or more accurately, “one of several Lebron games.”  Individual performances tend to capture attention to a greater degree than team-generated victories, and in Game 1, Stephen Curry provided plenty of individual achievement.

Curry was struggling through a mediocre night, but exploded in the third quarter, scoring 22 points as the Warriors seemingly put away the Spurs.  What makes Curry’s performance even more memorable from a historical perspective are the stylistic differences between Curry and the great scorers of NBA history.

Here is Curry’s third quarter shot chart.

Curry only attempted two shots at the rim, and did not earn a single free-throw.  Instead, Curry’s transcendent shooting provided the scoring punch.  As such a singular, unique skill, Curry’s shooting amplifies his dominance, and leads to many of the more awe-inspiring shots made by any NBA player.

Along with individual performances, odds-defying comebacks are common among the NBA classics.  Reggie Miller’s late game heroics against the New York Knicks inspired a 30-for-30 feature, and the name of a popular blog.  In the reverse of Monday’s result, a San Antonio regular season game was immortalized when Tracy McGrady scored 13 points in 35 seconds to complete an improbable comeback.

Though equal parts comeback and collapse, Game 1 provided all the drama of these incredible games.  The San Antonio Spurs became the first team ever to win a playoff game after trailing by 16 points in the final four minutes, moving teams in that unenviable situation to 1-and-393 all time.

If Stephen Curry’s 2013 playoff-high 44 points and a record-setting comeback were not enough, the game went through two overtimes and came down to the final possession.  Manu Ginobli’s clutch three sealed the Spurs’ victory and put the finishing touches on the historically great Game 1.