San Antonio vs. Dallas -8
If Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard return from injury, the Spurs, 30-3 at home, should be able cover against the recently decent Mavericks. With Duncan on the court, the Spurs outscore their opponents by 11.8 points per 100 possessions, a significant improvement from their still impressive 6.3 rating differential with Duncan off the court. Kawhi Leonard, the versatile forward who has emerged as an elite defender, should slow Mavericks forward Shawn Marion, while Duncan guards offensive catalyst Dirk Nowitzki. Though the Mavericks have been an improved defensive team over the last month, their guards Darren Collison and O.J. Mayo struggle with off ball defense, while Danny Green, Corey Joseph, Manu Ginbobli, and basically the entire Spurs roster excel at taking advantage of defensive breakdowns and miscommunications.
Portland vs. New York -4
During tonight’s game versus the Denver Nuggets Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler both suffered game-ending knee injuries, and will likely join Amar’e Stoudamire on the Knicks’ list of max-contract players in dress clothes. In their game against Portland, the second night of a back to back, the Knicks may be without their two most important players. Without Chandler to anchor the defense and Anthony the offense, the Knicks will likely struggle against the Blazers, who’s 106.2 offensive rating places them 11th in the league. With Chandler off the court, the New York Knicks allow 105.4 points per 100 possessions, the same rating as the 13th ranked Philadelphia 76ers. However, counter intuitively given Chandler’s defensive fame, it is the Knicks’ offense that falters with Chandler off the floor, dropping 8.2 points per 100 possessions from 112.6 to 104.4. The Blazers are 20-11 in Portland, and should be able to beat the depleted Knicks.
Year to Date: 19-7