Golden State at Indiana +7.5
The Pacers have won 10 of their last 15 games and overtaken the New York Knicks for 2nd place in the East. Over those 15 games, the Pacers have outscored their opponents by 12.9 points per 100 possessions (per nba.com). Meanwhile, the Warriors have struggled over the same span, winning only 7 of their 15 games, and have been outscored by 4.2 points per 100 possessions (per nba.com). However, in these teams first matchup, the Warriors did an excellent job denying Paul George the ball off the dribble handoffs Indiana runs to give him favorable position. By forcing Paul George to catch the ball further from the basket and helping down on David West, the Warriors should at least keep this game close by limiting the Pacers 22nd ranked offense, which only scores 103.2 points per 100 possessions.
Orlando at Philadelphia +10.0
With the return of Thad Young, Philadelphia is a better team than Orlando as currently constructed. However, the 76ers only have 7 wins all season by more than 10 points, and have struggled to separate themselves even from weaker teams.
Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings -15.5
The Miami Heat have one 11 straight games, while Sacramento has continued their struggle, winning only 2 of their last 10 games. Sacramento runs the leagues worst defense, allowing 111.8 points per 100 possessions, a flaw that will prove fatal against Miami’s tied for league leading offense.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls +7
Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, and the Cavs should be able to take advantage of Taj Gibson’s recent injury and the strain it will put on the Bull’s defensive rotations. Though Chicago’s 4th ranked D will likely trap or pocket Kyrie Irving in the pick and roll, Irving scores 1.08 points per possession in isolation, good for 2nd in the Nba. Irving’s ability to draw fouls on Joakim Noah and score efficiently to end the game should allow Cleveland to pressure the Bulls in Chicago.
Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks +5.5
Though the Bucks starting guards Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis are generally highly inefficient, they should be able to penetrate freely against the Maverick’s weak perimeter defenders and take advantage of the Maverick’s non-existent interior defense. J.J. Redick should provide a nice boost off the bunch for the Bucks, as Maverick’s guard O.J. Mayo generally struggles with off-ball defense.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns +1.5
Though they are still without Kevin Love, with a healthy Andrei Kirilenko and a recovering Ricky Rubio, the Wolves are a much better team than the Phoenix. The lowly suns have the league’s 23rd ranked defense and 27th ranked offense, and may find further difficulty scoring if Ricky Rubio is healthy enough to pressure Goran Dragic into an inefficient game.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Charlotte Bobcats +16.0
Charlotte has both the worst record and point differential (-9.2) in the league, while the Clippers have the both the 4th best record and point differential (+6.3). Charlotte’s surrenders 111.8 points per 100 possessions, trailing only the Kings in the race for most porous defense, while the Clippers score 109.2 points per 100 possession (a rating that would be much higher had Chris Paul not missed several games). Though 16 is a lot of points, Charlotte’s defense may be unable to keep this game within reach.
Year to Date: 12-6