(Written For Blue Man Hoop)
Improved defense and a few offensive outbursts cemented Klay Thompson as a key piece to the Warriors’ future. With his national recognition on the rise, where does Thompson rank among the league’s top shooting guards?
Tier 1:
1. Dwyane Wade: Wade, James Harden, and Kobe Bryant, or some iteration of the three, are widely considered the only stars at shooting guard. Wade’s defense is the decisive factor in creating the slight separation between Wade, Harden, and Bryant. While Wade is not always dedicated defensively, he positively affects Miami at that end far more often than Harden and Bryant do their teams. Harden and Bryant have very little interest in on ball defense, and can often be found drifting off their man, floating on defense without purpose. While his effort can be criticized, he is more consistent defensively than either Harden or Bryant, and has a greater impact at maximum effort as well. Though Wade benefits from playing with LeBron James, his offensive efficiency may be equally valuable to the slightly less efficient creation of Harden and Bryant.
2. James Harden: Often called the future of the shooting guard position, James Harden is already the present. At only 24 years old, Harden is one of the best offensive players in the league. Though he can score from anywhere on the court, Harden generally restricts his shot selection to only the most efficient areas, behind the arc and at the rim. The Houston Rockets have built their entire offense around him in the pick and roll. Along with being an incredible scorer, Harden is one of the best passers in the league, and repeatedly finds teammates for open threes as defenses collapse on his drives. At 50.4 percent, Harden and Bryant have the exact same adjusted field goal percentage. What separates Harden from Bryant, and most of the league, is his ability to draw fouls. Harden’s true shooting percentage, which includes free throws, is 60 percent, incredible for a guard, while Bryant’s is slightly less efficient 57 percent.
3. Kobe Bryant: Though Bryant’s season may be remembered for his Achilles’ injury, his offensive performance this season was very impressive. Fighting old age, injuries, roster instability, coaching change, and possibly Dwight Howard, Kobe finished with his highest true-shooting percentage since the 2007-2008 season, and the highest assist percentage of his career. Though his defense was often crippling, his offense was brilliant. With him on the court, the Lakers scored 110.4 points per 100 possessions. Bryant is often criticized for his supposed “selfishness,” but had a higher assist percentage than James Harden, who rarely suffers the same criticisms.
Tier 2:
4. Andre Iguodala: Iguodala played small forward for most of his career, but transitioned to a shooting guard role for Denver (one of the few intricacies of player analysis actually covered in these rankings). Iguodala is decent offensively. He creates opportunities for his teammates, but does not always convert ones he creates for himself, and has a high turnover rate. Iguodala has his moments offensively, and is consistently great defensively. He defends the opponents best perimeter player, from LeBron James to Steph Curry, and produces among the best defensive results in the league.
Tier 3:
Here it gets a bit (a lot) more convoluted. Potential disrupts the perception of current ability, but potential should also affect current value. For an older player, performance over the duration of a season outweighs a strong finish, while for younger players, a strong finish could be a sign of long-lasting improvement. Players like Klay Thompson, Bradley Beal, and Jimmy Butler all made dramatic improvements by the end of the season, but players like Arron Afflalo, Joe Johnson, and J.J. Redick may have been better over the duration of the season.
At least at this moment, this third tier consists of the Joe Johnson, the oft-injured Eric Gordon, Arron Afflalo, J.J. Redick, Bradley Beal, Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, and Manu Ginobli. Beal, Butler, and Thompson all finished the season at a high level, Afflalo and Redick were consistently above average for mediocre to bad teams, Johnson was consistently above average for an above average team, Gordon was consistently not playing for a team, and Ginobli was inconsistently excellent for a great team. All of these players have flaws, but all are, or at least by the end of the season appeared to be, a positive factor for their team.
Tier 4:
Now we reach the depths of even greater convolution, where potential and production vary from game to game. Here the flaws are more fatal, the potential is less likely to result in production, or the ceiling of production is lower. This tier includes Avery Bradley, Lance Stephenson, Tyreke Evans, Demar Derozan, Kevin Martin, Iman Shumpert, Danny Green, Tony Allen, Wesley Matthews, Warriors’ acquaintance Monta Ellis, and others.
As a disclaimer, these tiers and rankings do not indicate a finite judgement of these players boundaries and abilities. Finding Klay Thompson’s place relative to his peers helps improve perspective on Thompson’s value to the Warriors, his progress and current abilities, and his future.
Thompson has an elite skill, separating him from many of the other shooting guards in the league. His inappropriate use of this skill is what limits him. Thompson likely lacks the athleticism to ever reach the Wade-Harden-Kobe plateau, but by improving his shot selection, Thompson can become a consistently dangerous offensive threat. Thompson’s ability to shoot not just out of spot up but off screens allows him to create for teammates in atypical ways. Dump downs to big men and kick outs to wings off drives stemming from defenses overplaying the jump shot are as important to Thompson’s offensive value as his scoring.
Thompson needs to improve his decision making and general offensive awareness, along with his dribbling, if he ever wants to become an offensive star, but his shooting ability and defense will make him a very good shooting guard with only minimal improvements.