Miami… January 27th, 2013:
The sea churned and clouds gathered like vultures to a carcass over American Airlines Arena, while furious waves crashed the rocky shore, waiting to sweep the Boston Celtics to oblivion.
Ok, maybe it was a day game, and Miami was actually enjoying a quite pleasant tropical day. Nevertheless, unlike Miami’s free-agent appealing climate, the Boston Celtics’ season was in turmoil. The Celtics were struggling through a 6 game losing streak and had dropped two games below .500 into the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot. Prior to the season, the Celtic’s chose to keep their aging assets Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce and sign veteran guard Jason Terry in an attempt to build upon, or at least maintain, the previous year’s success despite an ever-aging core. In all but position, the center of the Celtic’s organization was all-star point guard Rajon Rondo. Through January 27th, 71.4% of the Celtics’ possessions with Rondo on the court (he played 51% of their minutes despite missing games to suspension and injury) ended in an assist, field goal attempt, free throw attempt, or turnover by Rondo. Just hours before their pivotal game against Miami, the Boston Celtics were informed that Rondo had, in the previous game against the Atlanta Hawks, torn his ACL, and would likely miss the rest of the season. In the midst of their losing streak, this news seemed to spell the end for the once-mighty Celtics. Yet, seemingly riding the emotion induced by Rondo’s injury, the Celtics upset the Heat 100-98. Though the waves lapped at their feet, the Celtics had persevered through the storm. As one would expect, the Celtics rode this emotional high for another game before succumbing to the challenges of playing without their star. They were unable to generate sufficient offense, while Pierce and Garnett felt the burden of an increased minutes load, and like every empire before them, the Celtics crumbled, fading out of playoff contention.
However, as is often the case with the Garnett-era Celtics, what one would expect did not coincide with reality. Despite losing Rondo, the Celtics have not yet faltered. Since Rondo’s injury was announced the Celtics have won 7 straight games. The common rhetoric used to describe this phenomenon focuses on the ideas that “Boston is just making shots,” or that, “Rondo was holding the Celtics back.” Though these reasons may prove to be somewhat true, it is likely that other factors play the major role in the Celtics’ newfound success.
The Celtics’ win streak can largely be accounted for by the level of competition they have faced. Of their seven opponents, only Miami, the Los Angeles Clippers, and Denver are above .500, and the Clippers were playing without Chris Paul and his +9.4 efficiency differential (per basketball-reference.com), while Denver faced Boston on the second night of a back to back, and lost Andre Iguodala during the game. Though the Celtics’ opponents had the average point margin, 0.67, expected of a 43-39 team at the end of a season, the aforementioned conditions vastly decrease the quality of these wins.
Though the Celtics’ schedule may have been soft, NBA teams habitually lose to worse ones (case in point: all 9 of Charlotte’s victories last year). The Celtics have clearly played very well over the last 6 games, so what have they changed, and is the success relatively sustainable? Throughout Rondo’s tenure as point guard, the Celtics have relied heavily on the mid-range jump shot. Be it off a pick and pop for the big man or a Paul Pierce isolation, the Celtics have constantly sought out the exact shot most defenses attempt to force their opponents into taking. Before Rondo’s injury, the approximately 34.8% of the Celtics’ shots were attempted from 10 feet out to the three point line. Though Rondo’s injury would seem to necessitate a major change, the Celtics, consistent with the typical shot selection, have taken 35.7% of their field goal attempts from the long-two region since Rondo’s injury. The only significant change in the Celtics’ basic shot selection is an increase in 3 point field goals attempts under 30 feet. Prior to Rondo’s injury, 19.7% of the Celtics shots were taken from this range, and through 7 games without him the rate has risen to 22.2%.
While the Celtics general shot selection has only undergone minor changes, their effectiveness has drastically improved. Since Rondo’s injury, the Celtics have made 35.6% of their 3 point attempts, up from 33.5%, and have converted 50.8% of their 2-point field goals, up from 48.9%, increasing the Celtics adjusted field goal percentage from a 14th ranked 49.1% to what would be a 7th ranked 51.4%. This, along with a 2% spike in free throw percentage have increased the Celtics’ true shooting percentage from 52.8% to 55.6%, and boosted the Celtics offensive efficiency from 1.020 points per possession to 107.8, a rate that would place them 7th in the league a drastic improvement for a previously 28th ranked offense.
Though the Celtics shot selection would suggest little schematic change, in their efforts to replace Rondo the Celtics have pressured the rotations of the relatively mediocre defensive opponents they have faced over the last 7 games, resulting in better looks, albeit from similar regions. With Rondo out, the Celtics appear to have adopted a Denver Nuggets drive, re-drive, and kick style offense, with intermittent Kevin Garnett post ups, Jason Terry pick and rolls, and Paul Pierce isolations to disrupt the defense. The Celtics Rajon Rondo run offense was often criticized for the predictable pick and pops with little off ball movement. Though defenses will eventually adjust, the Celtics were able to succeed against these 7 teams with Avery Bradley or Courtney Lee running the baseline, Paul Pierce attacking the wing, and a point guard-by-committee initiated offense. Oddly, through this seven game sample the Celtics have rebounded at the exact same 47.9% total rebounding rate as they had throughout the season. Given their historical hatred for offensive rebounds, the Celtics should struggle to generate enough extra opportunities to compensate for defensive adjustments, and likely falter as the opposition quality rises. Without their franchise rudder to guide them, the Celtic’s ship will eventually succumb to the seas.
(Unless otherwise specified, all stats are from nbawowy.com)